Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic
Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic
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北大西洋冰山分布季节预测的前景
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-017-3136-4
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Marsh R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marsh R
海洋冰山建模的一种有效方法提供了一种手段，用于评估西北大西洋冰山分布的季节性预测前景，每年春天冰山都会对海员造成危害。作为欧洲海洋模拟核心（NEMO）一部分的独立表面（SAS）模块与NEMO冰山模块（ICB）以水平分辨率为0.25°的“SAS-ICB”配置相耦合。对2013-2015年近三年的冰山状况进行了调查，其特点是冰山分布变化很大。SAS-ICB的相对简单性有助于有效调查对冰山通量和主要环境条件的敏感性。SAS-ICB提供了来自气象局全球海洋同化预报模型（FOAM）的每日表层海洋分析场。表面洋流、温度和高度共同决定了冰山的平流和融化速度。冰山漂移还受到每3小时更新一次的地表风的影响。根据工程控制理论确定了格陵兰冰盖的冰山通量，并将其指定为戴维斯海峡附近1月或2月的上游通量。模拟的冰山分布与国际冰巡逻队报告和存档的观测结果一起进行评估。当考虑到上游冰山通量和海洋/大气条件的变化时，获得与观测的最佳一致性。包括在海洋-大气模型中的相互作用的冰山有足够的季节性预报技巧，并提供准确的冬季冰山通量，它的结论是，季节性预报的春季/夏季冰山条件西北大西洋现在是一个现实的前景。
An efficient approach to ocean–iceberg modelling provides a means for assessing prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the northwest Atlantic, where icebergs present a hazard to mariners each spring. The stand-alone surface (SAS) module that is part of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) is coupled with the NEMO iceberg module (ICB) in a “SAS-ICB” configuration with horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Iceberg conditions are investigated for three recent years, 2013–2015, characterized by widely varying iceberg distributions. The relative simplicity of SAS-ICB facilitates efficient investigation of sensitivity to iceberg fluxes and prevailing environmental conditions. SAS-ICB is provided with daily surface ocean analysis fields from the global Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) of the Met Office. Surface currents, temperatures and height together determine iceberg advection and melting rates. Iceberg drift is further governed by surface winds, which are updated every 3 h. The flux of icebergs from the Greenland ice sheet is determined from engineering control theory and specified as an upstream flux in the vicinity of Davis Strait for January or February. Simulated iceberg distributions are evaluated alongside observations reported and archived by the International Ice Patrol. The best agreement with observations is obtained when variability in both upstream iceberg flux and oceanographic/atmospheric conditions is taken into account. Including interactive icebergs in an ocean–atmosphere model with sufficient seasonal forecast skill, and provided with accurate winter iceberg fluxes, it is concluded that seasonal forecasts of spring/summer iceberg conditions for the northwest Atlantic are now a realistic prospect.
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DOI：
--
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影响因子：
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