A mathematical model for COVID-19 pandemic-SIIR model: Effects of asymptomatic individuals.
A mathematical model for COVID-19 pandemic-SIIR model: Effects of asymptomatic individuals.
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DOI：
10.1002/jgf2.382
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Kono M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tomochi M;Kono M
考虑到COVID-19的特点，构建了一个新的数学模型SIIR模型来描述感染的传播，并通过日本的数据进行了验证。SIIR模型中纳入了COVID-19的以下特征：（a）存在即使在潜伏期也具有传染性的症状前个体，（B）存在可以自由移动并在感染传播中发挥关键作用的无症状个体，以及（c）免疫持续时间可能是有限的。SIIR模型的优势在于能够明确地处理延迟发现或在真实的世界中极难被发现的无症状个体。结果表明，SIIR模型中的群体免疫的条件变得更加严重比SIR模型中的那些，即，无症状个体的存在增加了群体免疫阈值（HIT）。通过考虑COVID-19的特点，构建了一个名为SIIR的新数学模型，以描述全球范围内正在发生的感染传播，并通过日本的确诊病例数进行了验证。SIIR模型的优势在于能够明确地处理延迟发现或在真实的世界中极难被发现的无症状个体。
A new mathematical model called SIIR model is constructed to describe the spread of infection by taking account of the characteristics of COVID‐19 and is verified by the data from Japan. The following features of COVID‐19: (a) there exist presymptomatic individuals who have infectivity even during the incubation period, (b) there exist asymptomatic individuals who can freely move around and play crucial roles in the spread of infection, and (c) the duration of immunity may be finite, are incorporated into the SIIR model. The SIIR model has the advantage of being able to explicitly handle asymptomatic individuals who are delayed in discovery or are extremely difficult to be discovered in the real world. It is shown that the conditions for herd immunity in the SIIR model become more severe than those in the SIR model; that is, the presence of asymptomatic individuals increases herd immunity threshold (HIT). A new mathematical model called SIIR is constructed to describe the world‐widely undergoing spread of infection by taking account of the characteristics of COVID‐19 and is verified by the number of confirmed cases in Japan. The SIIR model has the advantage of being able to explicitly handle asymptomatic individuals who are delayed in discovery or are extremely difficult to be discovered in the real world.
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Chen, Yi;Smith, Lloyd V.
通讯作者：
Smith, Lloyd V.
影响因子：
39.2
作者：
Lauer, Stephen A.;Grantz, Kyra H.;Lessler, Justin
通讯作者：
Lessler, Justin
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Blower, S
通讯作者：
Blower, S