Hydro-JULES: Next Generation Land-surface and Hydrological Predictions
Hydro-JULES: Next Generation Land-surface and Hydrological Predictions
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Hydro-JULES：下一代陆地表面和水文预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Reynard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Dadson;E. Blyth;D. Clark;R. Ellis;A. Hughes;J. Hannaford;B. Lawrence;J. Polcher;N. Reynard
了解不断变化的水循环带来的风险和机遇是21世纪科学家、水资源管理者和政策制定者面临的最紧迫的挑战之一[1]。《巴黎协定》要求科学家更好地了解水循环在地球系统中的作用，量化人为变暖和环境变化对水文极端情况的风险和影响，并对全球水资源的可获得性提供更准确的估计。仙台减少灾害风险框架强调了了解水文气象灾害的重要性，以支持基于风险的管理并提供及时和准确的预测。可持续发展目标源于2030年议程，强调必须消除水不安全对经济增长造成的制约[2、3]，并强调发达经济体和发展中经济体因水资源管理得当和减少极端情况的脆弱性而产生的变革性好处[4]。在英国，2016年国家洪水复原力审查[5]强调了准确评估当前和未来洪水风险的重要性，并鼓励创新，以提供所有时间尺度上更好的洪水预测。此外，关键的经济和基础设施资产对当前和未来水资源可获得性和极端情况的复原力要求强有力、可辩护的、物理上一致的预测，以支持长期投资决策[6]。
Understanding the risks and opportunities presented by the changing water cycle is one of the most pressing challenges facing scientists, water managers and policymakers in the 21 century [1]. The Paris Agreement challenges scientists to improve our understanding of the water cycle’s role in the Earth system, to quantify the risks and impacts of anthropogenic warming and environmental change on hydrological extremes, and to provide more precise estimates of the availability of water resources worldwide. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction reinforces the importance of understanding hydro-meteorological hazards to support risk-based management and to provide timely and accurate predictions. Arising from the 2030 agenda, the Sustainable Development Goals emphasise the need to remove the constraints that water insecurity places on economic growth [2, 3], and highlight the transformative benefits arising in both developed and developing economies from well-managed water resources and reduced vulnerability to extremes [4]. In the United Kingdom, the 2016 National Flood Resilience Review [5] has stressed the importance of accurate assessments of current and future flood risk, and stimulated innovation to provide better predictions of floods across all time-scales. Moreover, the resilience of key economic and infrastructure assets to current and future water resources availability and extremes demands robust, defensible, physically-consistent projections to support long-lived investment decisions [6].