Agricultural droughts in the tropics
Agricultural droughts in the tropics
复制标题
热带地区的农业干旱
DOI：
10.1007/bf00866102
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发表时间：
1986
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
S. Nieuwolt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Nieuwolt
不定期干旱是热带农业严重减产的主要原因，有时会造成非常严重的后果。这些“农业干旱”是根据正常降雨条件来定义和划定的，传统农业生产系统完全适应这种情况。东非和马来西亚这两个气候和气候数据不同的热带地区的例子表明，有必要使用不同的统计方法来估计农业干旱的可能性。短期干旱通常被月降雨量掩盖，可能会产生严重影响，特别是对根系较短的一年生作物。一个简单的水量平衡模型，基于日降雨量数据，被用来估计这些枯水期的概率。当土壤饱和时，同样的模型可以用来预测剩余降雨期。这些时期可能会导致农业产量的严重下降。
Irregular droughts are the main reason for serious yield reductions in tropical agriculture, with sometimes very serious consequences. These “agricultural droughts” are defined and delimited in relation to normal rainfall conditions, to which traditional agricultural production systems are fully adapted. Examples from East Africa and Malaysia, tropical areas which differ climatically and in the availability of climatic data, illustrate that it is necessary to use different statistical methods to estimate the probability of agricultural droughts.Short droughts, often concealed by monthly rainfall figures, can have serious effects, particularly on annual crops with their short root systems. A simple water balance model, based on daily rainfall data, is used to estimate the probability of these dry periods. The same model can be used to predict periods of surplus rainfall, when soils are saturated. These periods can cause severe reduction in agricultural yields.