Baseline Scenarios for the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme
Baseline Scenarios for the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme
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发表时间：
2004
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通讯作者：
M. Amann;Imrich Bertok;J. Cofala;F. Gyarfas;C. Heyes;Z. Klimont;W. Schoepp;W. Winiwarter
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Amann;Imrich Bertok;J. Cofala;F. Gyarfas;C. Heyes;Z. Klimont;W. Schoepp;W. Winiwarter
本文报告了国际应用系统分析研究所的工作，只收到了有限的审查。本文表达的观点或意见不一定代表研究所、其国家成员组织或其他赞助工作的组织。清洁的空气对良好的生活质量至关重要，它提高了欧洲公民的社会福祉。科学评估揭示了欧洲过去和现在空气污染水平的一系列有害影响：人类健康受到细颗粒物和地面臭氧的严重威胁，导致数千名欧洲人过早死亡，并使欧洲人的预期寿命减少五到六个月。欧洲森林和自然生态系统的活力因多种污染途径而大大削弱：臭氧浓度高、酸沉降（“酸雨“）和过量氮沉降危及植物群落的生物多样性造成严重损害。·成千上万的欧洲湖泊和溪流无法科普不断增加的酸沉降量，因此失去了动物群和植物群。·地面臭氧对农作物造成的损害达到了经济上重要的程度。欧洲联盟在其《第六个环境行动纲领》中呼吁采取行动，将空气污染改善到不会对人类健康和环境产生有害影响的程度。科学研究的最新进展改善并改变了我们对空气污染如何损害人类健康和环境的理解：虽然早期的医学研究发现空气污染峰值与健康影响之间存在关联，但更精细的科学方法揭示了终身暴露于臭氧和低浓度小颗粒物的重大影响。在一年的大部分时间里，这种水平通常在整个欧洲普遍存在。这种长期接触所造成的总体健康影响可能大于高峰接触所造成的影响。新的研究表明，接触小颗粒（直径小于2.5微米，PM2.5）与死亡率大幅增加有关，特别是心血管和心肺疾病。据估计，欧洲目前的PM2.5水平将使欧洲人口的统计预期寿命减少约9个月，与交通事故的影响相当。因此，这些新确定的细颗粒物的影响远远超过了以前确定的臭氧影响。·随着近期酸沉降的下降，初步恢复已...
This paper reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and has received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations sponsoring the work. Clean air is essential for a good quality of life and it enhances the social well being of European citizens. Scientific assessments reveal a range of harmful effects from the past and present levels of air pollution in Europe: • Human health is seriously threatened by the exposure to fine particulate matter and ground-level ozone, causing several thousands of Europeans dying prematurely and reducing the life expectancy of Europeans by five to six months. • The vitality of European forests and natural ecosystems is significantly weakened through multiple pathways of pollution: serious damage is caused by high ozone concentrations, acid deposition (" acid rain ") and by excess nitrogen deposition endangering the biodiversity of plant communities. • Thousands of European lakes and streams were not able to cope with the increased amounts of acid deposition and thus have lost their fauna and flora. • Damage to agricultural crops caused by ground-level ozone reaches economically important dimensions. In its Sixth Environmental Action Programme the European Union calls for action to improve air pollution to a level that does not give rise to harmful effects on human health and the environment. Recent advances in scientific research has improved – and changed – our understanding of how air pollution damages human health and the environment: • While early medical studies found associations between peak levels of air pollution and health effects, more refined scientific methods reveal significant impacts of lifelong exposure to ozone and small particles also at lower concentrations. Such levels typically prevail throughout Europe for most of the year. Overall health impacts resulting from this long-term exposure might be larger than those from peak exposure. • New studies show that exposure to small particles (below a diameter of 2.5 µm, PM2.5) is associated with substantially increased mortality, especially from cardio-vascular and cardio-pulmonary diseases. Present levels of PM2.5 in Europe are now estimated to reduce the statistical life expectancy in European population by approximately nine months, comparable to the impacts of traffic accidents. Thus, these newly identified impacts of fine particles by far exceed those identified earlier for ozone. • Following the recent decline in acid deposition, initial recovery has …