Generating Policies for Sustainable Water Use in Complex Scenarios: An Integrated Land-Use and Water-Use Model of Monroe County, Michigan
Generating Policies for Sustainable Water Use in Complex Scenarios: An Integrated Land-Use and Water-Use Model of Monroe County, Michigan
复制标题
制定复杂情景下的可持续用水政策：密歇根州门罗县的土地利用和水资源综合利用模型
DOI：
10.1068/b32152
复制
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Zellner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Zellner
自20世纪90年代初以来，地下水水位的迅速下降引起了密歇根州门罗县的严重关注。水文研究表明，土地利用变化导致了这种下降。然而，将土地利用和地下水动态联系起来的机制尚不清楚。在本文中，我提出了WULUM，即水利用和土地利用模型，这是一个基于主体的模型，可以作为分析框架来理解这些过程如何相互作用，从而产生所观察到的资源枯竭模式，并提出扭转这一进程的政策建议。土地利用部分包括县里的主要地下水采石场、高尔夫球场、农场和家庭。地下水成分包括冰川沉积物和下伏的基岩含水层。用水者的行为是由简单的规则定义的，这些规则决定了他们的位置和消费量。地下水的动态是通过每个单元及其邻近单元之间的渗透和扩散规律来表示的。该模型的初步探索表明，土地利用模式对地下水下降有显著影响，而消除采石场脱水并不能完全解决问题。与中等密度开发相比，低密度和高密度分区限制都改善了含水层条件，这表明住宅使用强度与地下水位之间存在非线性关系。此外，在所有自然和政策变量中，分区对城市住区的影响最大，因此对资源消耗的影响也最大。
Rapidly declining groundwater levels since the early 1990s have raised serious concern in Monroe County, Michigan. Hydrological studies suggest that land-use changes have caused this decline. The mechanisms linking land-use and groundwater dynamics are not clear, however. In this paper I present WULUM, the Water-Use and Land-Use Model, an agent-based model that serves as an analytical framework to understand how these processes interact to create the observed patterns of resource depletion, and to suggest policies to reverse the process. The land-use component includes the main groundwater extractors in the county—stone quarries, golf courses, farms, and households. The groundwater component includes the glacial deposits and the underlying bedrock acquifer. The behavior of water users is defined by simple rules that determine their location and consumption. The dynamics of groundwater are represented through infiltration and diffusion rules between each cell and its immediate neighbors. Initial explorations with the model showed that land-use patterns contributed significantly to groundwater declines, while eliminating quarry dewatering did not entirely solve the problem. Both low-density and high-density zoning restrictions improved aquifer conditions over medium-density development, suggesting a nonlinear relationship between intensity of residential use and groundwater levels. Moreover, of all the natural and policy variables, zoning had the greatest influence on urban settlement and therefore on resource consumption.