Associations of Clinical Characteristics and Intestinal Flora Imbalance in Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients and the Construction of an Early Warning Model.
Associations of Clinical Characteristics and Intestinal Flora Imbalance in Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients and the Construction of an Early Warning Model.
复制标题
稳定期慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）患者临床特征与肠道菌群失衡的关联及早期预警模型的构建。
DOI：
10.2147/copd.s330976
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Zhu T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zeng X;Yang H;Yang Y;Gu X;Ma X;Zhu T
建立一个简单的预测模型和评分规则，适用于呼吸科临床医务人员评估稳定期慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）患者肠道植物群失衡的发生。2019年1月1日至2020年12月31日，在江苏大学宜兴医院呼吸与重症监护门诊就诊的COPD患者（195例）参加了一项横断面研究。根据大便检查结果将患者分为实验组（41例）和对照组（154例）。对两组基线资料进行单因素和Logistic回归分析，得到新的预测模型，并进一步简化。五个预测因素组成的模型：体重指数（BMI），血清白蛋白（ALB），Charlson的合并症指数（CCI），胃肠道症状评分（GSR），和全球倡议慢性阻塞性肺疾病（GOLD）分类。预测稳定期COPD患者肠道植物群失衡的模型的ROC曲线下面积（AUC）为0.953 [95% CI（0.924，0.982）]。简化评分规则后，AUC为0.767 [95% CI（0.676，0.858）]。在本研究中，我们获得了一个可以有效预测稳定期COPD患者肠道植物群失衡风险的模型，适合在早期治疗中实施，以改善预后。此外，所有指标都可以很容易和简单地获得。
Establish a simple predictive model and scoring rule that is suitable for clinical medical staff in respiratory departments to assess intestinal flora imbalance occurrence in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. From January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2020, COPD patients (195 cases) – who attended the Outpatient Department, Respiratory and Critical Care, Yixing Hospital, Jiangsu University – were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Based on stool examination results, patients were divided into experimental (41 cases) and control (154 cases) groups. Single-factor and logistic regression analyses were performed with the baseline data of the two groups to obtain a new predictive model, which was further simplified. Five predictive factors composed the model: body mass index (BMI), serum albumin (ALB), Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI), gastrointestinal symptom score (GSRs), and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) classification. The model to predict intestinal flora imbalance in stable COPD patients had an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.953 [95% CI (0.924, 0.982)]. After simplifying the scoring rules, the AUC was 0.767 [95% CI (0.676, 0.858)]. In the current study, we obtained a model that could effectively predict intestinal flora imbalance risk in stable COPD patients, being suitable for implementation in early treatments to improve the prognosis. Moreover, all indicators can be easily and simply obtained.