Modelling the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia
Modelling the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1751-0813.2005.tb11589.x
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发表时间：
2005-12-01
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Beckett, SD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Garner, MG;Beckett, SD
对外来动物疾病的入侵做好准备对政府、工业、生产者和澳大利亚社会至关重要。澳大利亚为口蹄疫可能入侵做准备的一个重要方面是调查消灭战略在适用于不同的区域爆发情况时可能产生的效力和成本效益。疾病模型是一种工具，可用于研究口蹄疫等疾病，以更好地了解不同条件下潜在的疾病传播和控制。澳大利亚政府农业、渔业和林业部参与流行病学模拟模型已有10多年，并开发了一个在地理信息系统框架内运作的复杂的口蹄疫空间模型（AusSpread）。该模型可容纳真实的农场边界或点位置数据，以及基于农业普查和土地利用信息的综合数据。该模型还考虑到不同动物物种和生产类型的畜群或羊群之间的相互作用，并考虑到这种相互作用可能在口蹄疫区域爆发的流行病学中发挥的作用。用户可以从澳大利亚兽医紧急计划中目前描述的缓解和根除策略中选择。该模型还允许用户评估限制对缓解或根除措施资源可用性的影响。产出包括一系列地图和列表疫情统计数据，描述疫情的地理范围及其持续时间，受影响、屠宰和相关接种疫苗的牛群或羊群数量，以及控制和根除成本。与成本有关的产出以库存价值和缓解成本的预算为基础，每个预算都可以由用户改变。这些产出是协助政策制定和疾病管理的宝贵资源。
Preparedness for an incursion of an exotic animal disease is of key importance to government, industry, producers and the Australian community. An important aspect of Australia's preparedness for a possible incursion of foot-and-mouth disease is investigation into the likely effectiveness and cost-efficiency of eradication strategies when applied to different regional outbreak scenarios. Disease modelling is a tool that can be used to study diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease to better understand potential disease spread and control under different conditions.The Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry has been involved with epidemiologic simulation modelling for more than 10 years, and has developed a sophisticated spatial model for foot-and-mouth disease (AusSpread) that operates within a geographic information system framework. The model accommodates real farm boundary or point-location data, as well as synthesised data based on agricultural census and land use information. The model also allows for interactions between herds or flocks of different animal species and production type, and considers the role that such interactions are likely to play in the epidemiology of a regional outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The user can choose mitigations and eradication strategies from those that are currently described in Australia's veterinary emergency plan. The model also allows the user to evaluate the impact of constraints on the availability of resources for mitigations or eradication measures. Outputs include a range of maps and tabulated outbreak statistics describing the geographic extent of the outbreak and its duration, the numbers of affected, slaughtered, and, as relevant, vaccinated herds or flocks, and the cost of control and eradication. Cost-related outputs are based on budgets of the value of stock and the cost of mitigations, each of which can be varied by the user. These outputs are a valuable resource to assist with policy development and disease management.