Pre‐instrumental perspectives on Arkansas River cross‐watershed flow variability
Pre‐instrumental perspectives on Arkansas River cross‐watershed flow variability
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DOI：
10.1111/1752-1688.13068
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发表时间：
2022-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Torbenson;D. Stahle;I. Howard;J. Blackstock;M. K. Cleaveland;J. Stagge
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Torbenson;D. Stahle;I. Howard;J. Blackstock;M. K. Cleaveland;J. Stagge
我们给出了阿肯色河基流和径流的四个重建估计，使用了总共78个树轮年表，用于三个径流量计，地理上跨越科罗拉多州的源头到阿肯色州和密西西比河的汇合处附近。这些估计代表了不同的季节窗口，这是由降水对季节性树木生长和土壤水分的共同限制强迫以及随后对阿肯色河流量的可变性所决定的。在四次重建中，每一次都记录了比仪器时代所观察到的更高和更低的流动极值。与公元1600年以来的任何时期相比，在20世纪和21世纪，跨流域(所有地点)的低流量出现的年份更频繁，然而，没有观察到跨流域低流量的显著趋势。阿肯色河作为密西西比河最下游的主要支流，直接影响着密西西比河下游河谷的洪水风险。据估计，下游重建工程中的极高流量与路易斯安那州新奥尔良记录的特定年份的历史性洪水不谋而合，新奥尔良位于密西西比河三角洲上游。根据推论，在阿肯色河流量较低的年份，密西西比河洪水意味着密西西比河上游集水区对洪水的特殊贡献。
We present four reconstruction estimates of Arkansas River baseflow and streamflow using a total of 78 tree‐ring chronologies for three streamflow gages, geographically spanning the headwaters in Colorado to near the confluence of the Arkansas‐Mississippi rivers. The estimates represent different seasonal windows, which are dictated by the shared limiting forcing of precipitation on seasonal tree growth and soil moisture—and subsequently on the variability of Arkansas River discharge. Flow extremes that were higher and lower than what has been observed in the instrumental era are recorded in each of the four reconstructions. Years of concurrent, cross‐basin (all sites) low flow appear more frequently during the 20th and 21st Centuries compared to any period since 1600 A.D., however, no significant trend in cross‐basin low flow is observed. As the most downstream major tributary of the Mississippi River, the Arkansas River directly influences flood risk in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Estimates of extreme high flow in downstream reconstructions coincide with specific years of historic flooding documented in New Orleans, Louisiana, just upstream of the Mississippi River Delta. By deduction, Mississippi River flooding in years of low Arkansas River flow imply exceptional flooding contributions from the Upper Mississippi River catchments.