Deforestation and the real exchange rate
Deforestation and the real exchange rate
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森林砍伐和实际汇率
DOI：
10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.02.004
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
S. G. Jeanneney
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Arcand;P. Guillaumont;S. G. Jeanneney
砍伐森林是一种主要集中在发展中国家的现象。我们构建了一个森林砍伐的理论模型，重点研究了影响林地退耕还林动机的因素。我们表明：(1)较低的贴现率和更强大的机构减少了森林砍伐；(2)实际汇率贬值增加了发展中国家的森林砍伐，而发达国家则相反；(3)自相矛盾的是，更好的机构可能会加剧贬值对发展中国家的有害影响。这些假设在1961年至1988年期间对101个国家的年度样本进行了测试，数据并未否定这些假设。我们的结果表明，短期宏观经济政策、制度因素以及两者之间的相互作用，可能是环境结果的重要决定因素。
Deforestation is a phenomenon that has largely been concentrated in the developing world. We construct a theoretical model of deforestation that focuses on the factors affecting the incentives to transform forested land into agricultural land. We show that: (i) lower discount rates and stronger institutions decrease deforestation; (ii) a depreciation in the real exchange rate increases deforestation in developing countries whereas the opposite obtains in developed countries; (iii) paradoxically, better institutions may exacerbate the deleterious impact of a depreciation in developing countries. These hypotheses are tested on an annual sample of 101 countries over the 1961–1988 period, and are not rejected by the data. Our results suggest that short-term macroeconomic policy, institutional factors, and the interaction between the two, are potentially important determinants of environmental outcomes.