A spatial analysis of the spread of mumps: the importance of college students and their spring-break-associated travel.
A spatial analysis of the spread of mumps: the importance of college students and their spring-break-associated travel.
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268809990719
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发表时间：
2010-03
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Cavanaugh, J. E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Polgreen, P. M.;Bohnett, L. C.;Yang, M.;Pentella, M. A.;Cavanaugh, J. E.
为了描述2006年爱荷华州流行性腮腺炎疫情中县级危险因素与发病率之间的关系，我们使用广义线性混合模型，将每个县的腮腺炎病例数作为因变量。为了评估春假旅行的影响，我们测试了三个不同年龄组腮腺炎病例比例的差异。在最终的多变量模型中，爱荷华州每个县的大学生比例与腮腺炎病例呈正相关（P<0.0001），但大学数量与病例呈负相关（P=0.0002）。因此，如果一个县的大学生分布在更多的校园，这与腮腺炎病例较少有关。最后，我们发现，4月1日之后，老年人和年轻人中腮腺炎病例的比例都有所增加（P=0.0029），这表明大学春假旅行与腮腺炎向其他年龄组的传播有关。
To characterize the association between county-level risk factors and the incidence of mumps in the 2006 Iowa outbreak, we used generalized linear mixed models with the number of mumps cases per county as the dependent variable. To assess the impact of spring-break travel, we tested for differences in the proportions of mumps cases in three different age groups. In the final multivariable model, the proportion of Iowa’s college students per county was positively associated (P<0.0001) with mumps cases, but the number of colleges was negatively associated with cases (P=0.0002). Thus, if the college students in a county were spread among more campuses, this was associated with fewer mumps cases. Finally, we found the proportion of mumps cases in both older and younger persons increased after 1 April (P=0.0029), suggesting that spring-break college travel was associated with the spread of mumps to other age groups.