The North Atlantic Oscillation synchronises fruit production in western European forests
The North Atlantic Oscillation synchronises fruit production in western European forests
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DOI：
10.1111/ecog.02296
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发表时间：
2017-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Penuelas, Josep
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fernandez-Martinez, Marcos;Vicca, Sara;Penuelas, Josep
天气及其滞后效应与一些树种的年际变化和果实生产的同步性有关。这种关系通常用于假设果树生产的年际变化与树木资源或有利的授粉条件有关，以及通过莫兰效应（由气象变化驱动的种群间生物过程的同步）或花粉的当地可用性在不同地点之间的水果生产同步。然而，代表天气包的气候遥相关，如北大西洋涛动（NAO），很少与水果生产相关，尽管通常比当地天气更能预测生态过程。本研究利用分布在中欧地区的76个冷杉、山毛榉、云杉林、孟氏伪杉林、栎木林和罗柏林的数据，验证季节性NAO指数在预测果实生产年际变化和同年性方面的实用性。各树种果实产量的年际变化均与季节NAO指数呈显著相关，季节NAO指数的预测作用强于局地气象变量。这些分析确定的关系表明，近端原因是造成水果产量年际变化的主要原因，这支持了生产大型水果作物需要当地树木资源和有利的授粉条件的前提。林间果实生产的同步性主要与天气和林间地理距离有关。此外，在温暖和干燥的春季（负春季NAO期），同一年份的水果产量在不同地点之间变化较小。我们的研究结果确定了Moran效应是大地理尺度上果实生产同步的最可能机制，以及花粉有效性在局部尺度上同步果实生产的可能性。我们的研究结果强调了NAO对整个西欧水果生产模式的影响。
Weather and its lagged effects have been associated with interannual variability and synchrony of fruit production for several tree species. Such relationships are used often in hypotheses relating interannual variability in fruit production with tree resources or favourable pollinating conditions and with synchrony in fruit production among sites through the Moran effect (the synchronisation of biological processes among populations driven by meteorological variability) or the local availability of pollen. Climatic teleconnections, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), representing weather packages, however, have rarely been correlated with fruit production, despite often being better predictors of ecological processes than is local weather. The aim of this study was to test the utility of seasonal NAO indices for predicting interannual variability and synchrony in fruit production using data from 76 forests of Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus petraea, and Q. robur distributed across central Europe. Interannual variability in fruit production for all species was significantly correlated with seasonal NAO indices, which were more prominently important predictors than local meteorological variables. The relationships identified by these analyses indicated that proximal causes were mostly responsible for the interannual variability in fruit production, supporting the premise that local tree resources and favourable pollinating conditions are needed to produce large fruit crops. Synchrony in fruit production between forests was mainly associated with weather and geographical distance among sites. Also, fruit production for a given year was less variable among sites during warm and dry springs ( negative spring NAO phases). Our results identify the Moran effect as the most likely mechanism for synchronisation of fruit production at large geographical scales and the possibility that pollen availability plays a role in synchronising fruit production at local scales. Our results highlight the influence of the NAO on the patterns of fruit production across western Europe.