Historical and Future Changes of Snowfall Events in China under a Warming Background
Historical and Future Changes of Snowfall Events in China under a Warming Background
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变暖背景下中国降雪事件的历史和未来变化
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-17-0428.1
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发表时间：
2018-06
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Han Zhenyu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhou Botao;Wang Zunya;Shi Ying;Xu Ying;Han Zhenyu
利用区域气候模式RegCM 4（RegCM 4）在代表性浓度路径4.5（RCP4.5）情景下的模拟资料，研究了中国冬季降雪量的历史和未来变化。观测结果表明，自20世纪60年代以来，中国西北部、东北部、青藏高原东部和东南部的降雪频率总体上呈下降趋势，而平均强度呈上升趋势。然而，冬季降雪总量在NWC，NEC和ETP增加，但在SEC减少。降雪日数减少主要是由于小雪事件减少。总量的增加主要是由于大雪的增加，相应的减少是由于轻到大雪的减少。RegCM 4集合可以很好地模拟观测到的降雪气候学，预测到21世纪末，降雪日数将比1986-2005年进一步减少，主要是由于小雪事件的减少。预计NWC的总量将增加，但其他三个次区域的总量将减少。NWC总量的增加是由于大雪和大雪的增加。小雪的减少是NEC总量减少的主要原因。在ETP和SEC，总量的减少是轻到大雪总体减少的结果。这种变化的机制是一个有趣的课题，在未来的研究。
Using station data and Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulations under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, this article addresses historical and future changes of the wintertime snowfall over China. The observational results generally show a decrease in the frequency and an increase in the mean intensity of snowfalls in northwestern China (NWC), northeastern China (NEC), the eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), and southeastern China (SEC) since the 1960s. The total amount of wintertime snowfall, however, has increased in NWC, NEC, and ETP but decreased in SEC. The decrease in snow days is primarily due to the reduction of light snowfall events. The increase in the total amount is primarily explained by increases in heavy snowfalls, and the corresponding decrease is the result of decreases in light-to-heavy snowfalls. The RegCM4 ensemble, which can well simulate the observed snowfall climatology, projects that the snow days will be further reduced by the end of the twenty-first century relative to 1986–2005, primarily owing to the decline of light snowfall events. The total amount is projected to increase in NWC but decrease in the other three subregions. The increase in the total amount in NWC is attributed to increases in heavy and large snowfalls. Decreases in light snowfalls play a leading role in the decrease of the total amount in NEC. In ETP and SEC, the decrease in the total amount is the result of overall decreases in light-to-heavy snowfalls. The mechanism for such changes is an interesting topic to study in the future.
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