Predicting Interactions among Fishing, Ocean Warming, and Ocean Acidification in a Marine System with Whole-Ecosystem Models
Predicting Interactions among Fishing, Ocean Warming, and Ocean Acidification in a Marine System with Whole-Ecosystem Models
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01937.x
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Richardson, Anthony J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Griffith, Gary P.;Fulton, Elizabeth A.;Richardson, Anthony J.
保护面临的一个重要挑战是定量了解多种人类压力源如何相互作用，以减轻或加剧社区或生态系统一级的全球环境变化。我们探讨了捕鱼，海洋变暖和海洋酸化随着时间的推移对60个功能组的物种在澳大利亚东南部的海洋生态系统的相互作用。我们在一个耦合的动态全生态系统建模框架内跟踪了相对生物量的变化，该框架包括生物物理系统、人类影响、社会经济学和管理评估。我们估计的个人，添加剂和交互作用对生态系统和五个社区组（顶级捕食者，鱼类，底栖无脊椎动物，浮游生物和初级生产者）。我们用加性零模型计算了相互作用效应的大小和方向，并将结果解释为协同（放大应力）、加性（无额外应力）或拮抗（降低应力）。单独来看，只有海洋酸化对总生物量产生负面影响。捕鱼和海洋变暖以及海洋变暖和海洋酸化对生物量有累加效应。在海洋变暖和海洋酸化的基础上再加上捕鱼，大大改变了相互作用的方向和程度，使之对生物量产生协同效应。相互作用的影响取决于检查的响应水平（生态系统与社区）。对于社区，大小，方向和类型的相互作用的影响，根据压力的组合。顶部捕食者和鱼类生物量有一个协同反应的所有三个压力的相互作用，而生物量的底栖无脊椎动物的反应拮抗。通过我们的方法，我们能够确定捕鱼对海洋变暖和海洋酸化相互作用影响的大小和方向的区域影响。
An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification.