A CLIMATE-BASED MALARIA TRANSMISSION MODEL WITH STRUCTURED VECTOR POPULATION
A CLIMATE-BASED MALARIA TRANSMISSION MODEL WITH STRUCTURED VECTOR POPULATION
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DOI：
10.1137/080744438
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Zhao, Xiao-Qiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lou, Yijun;Zhao, Xiao-Qiang
本文提出了一个具有周期出生率和年龄结构的病媒种群疟疾传播模型。我们首先引入了该模型的基本再生比，然后证明了该模型至少存在一个正周期态，并且当R-0 > 1时疾病持续存在。在入侵强度不强的情况下，当R-0 < 1时，病害会逐渐消亡。我们进一步使用这些分析结果来研究南非夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的疟疾传播病例。对R-0进行了一些敏感性分析，特别是分析了气候变化对季节性传播和疾病风险人群的潜在影响。
In this paper, we present a malaria transmission model with periodic birth rate and age structure for the vector population. We first introduce the basic reproduction ratio for this model and then show that there exists at least one positive periodic state and that the disease persists when R-0 > 1. It is also shown that the disease will die out if R-0 < 1, provided that the invasion intensity is not strong. We further use these analytic results to study the malaria transmission cases in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. Some sensitivity analysis of R-0 is performed, and in particular, the potential impact of climate change on seasonal transmission and populations at risk of the disease is analyzed.