Investigation and optimization analysis on deployment of China coal chemical industry under carbon emission constraints
Investigation and optimization analysis on deployment of China coal chemical industry under carbon emission constraints
复制标题
碳排放约束下我国煤化工产业布局调查与优化分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113684
复制
发表时间：
2019-11-15
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Xie, Ke-Chang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Yi;Yi, Qun;Xie, Ke-Chang
煤化工行业在中国经济增长和能源安全中起着至关重要的作用。本文提出了一种约束非线性规划方法，优化煤化工行业的部署技术和流程，以减少CO2排放，从而在满足经济增长和能源安全的前提下，实现煤化工行业单位产量CO2排放量最小。基于该模型，研究了煤化工行业在短期（2020年）、中期（2030年）和长期（2050年）以减少二氧化碳排放为目标的新技术和新工艺的部署。对技术升级、碳捕集与封存、碳捕集、利用与封存等技术因素对煤化工行业二氧化碳减排和经济增长的影响进行动态敏感性或不确定性分析。不同的技术进行了模拟，输出提供了三种情景：100%（积极），50%（中等）和25%（保守）的预测目标减少二氧化碳排放。根据碳税和原油价格，分析了不同时期二氧化碳排放量的减少情况。相应地，绘制了煤化工行业在减少碳排放方面的发展路线图（2020-2030-2050）。
The coal chemical industry plays a critical role in the economic growth and energy security of China. In this study, a constrained nonlinear programming is proposed to optimize deployment technologies and processes of the coal chemical industry to reduce CO2 emissions, and thus obtain the minimum CO2 emissions per unit output of the coal chemical sector, while satisfying economic growth and energy security. Deployment of new technologies and processes in the coal chemical industry, over short-term (2020), mid-term (2030) and long-term (2050) periods, with the objective to reduce CO2 emissions, are investigated based on this model. Dynamic sensitivity or uncertainty analysis of impacts of technical factors such as technology upgrading, carbon capture and storage & carbon capture, utilization, and storage and other technologies to deployed coal chemical sectors on CO2 emissions reduction and economic growth, are performed. Different technologies were simulated, with the output providing three scenarios: 100% (positive), 50% (moderate) and 25% (conservative) of the predicted target reduction in CO2 emissions. The reduction in CO2 emissions was analyzed at different time periods, with respect to carbon tax values and crude oil prices. Correspondingly, a development roadmap (2020-2030-2050) of the coal chemical industry, with respect to reducing carbon emissions is drawn.