Incidence rate estimation, periodic testing and the limitations of the mid-point imputation approach.
Incidence rate estimation, periodic testing and the limitations of the mid-point imputation approach.
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyx134
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Tanser F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vandormael A;Dobra A;Bärnighausen T;de Oliveira T;Tanser F
通常使用最新阴性检测日期和最早阳性检测日期之间的中点作为感染事件的日期。然而，一旦参与者开始错过预定的测试日期，中点方法的准确性还有待系统地量化。我们使用基于模拟的方法对检测率高（80-100%）、中（60-79.9%）、低（40-59.9%）和差（30-39.9%）的发病率队列生成传染病流行。接下来，我们在参与者最近的阴性和最早的阳性测试日期之间估算了一个中点和随机点值。然后，我们将这些输入值得出的发病率与模拟模型生成的真实发病率进行了比较。一旦检测率低于80%，在观察期结束时，中点发病率估计值就会错误地下降。对于中等、低和差的测试率，这种下降的误差分别约为9%、27%和41%。即使检测率低至30%，随机点方法在发生率估计中也没有引入任何系统偏差。感染日期的中点假设是不合理的，不应用于计算参与者开始错过预定检测日期后的发病率。在这些条件下，我们发现在观察期结束时，发病率出现了人为的下降。或者，单随机点方法易于实施，并产生非常接近真实发病率的估计值。
It is common to use the mid-point between the latest-negative and earliest-positive test dates as the date of the infection event. However, the accuracy of the mid-point method has yet to be systematically quantified for incidence studies once participants start to miss their scheduled test dates. We used a simulation-based approach to generate an infectious disease epidemic for an incidence cohort with a high (80–100%), moderate (60–79.9%), low (40–59.9%) and poor (30–39.9%) testing rate. Next, we imputed a mid-point and random-point value between the participant’s latest-negative and earliest-positive test dates. We then compared the incidence rate derived from these imputed values with the true incidence rate generated from the simulation model. The mid-point incidence rate estimates erroneously declined towards the end of the observation period once the testing rate dropped below 80%. This decline was in error of approximately 9%, 27% and 41% for a moderate, low and poor testing rate, respectively. The random-point method did not introduce any systematic bias in the incidence rate estimate, even for testing rates as low as 30%. The mid-point assumption of the infection date is unjustified and should not be used to calculate the incidence rate once participants start to miss the scheduled test dates. Under these conditions, we show an artefactual decline in the incidence rate towards the end of the observation period. Alternatively, the single random-point method is straightforward to implement and produces estimates very close to the true incidence rate.
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影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Boily, Marie-Claude;Baggaley, Rebecca F.;Wang, Lei;Masse, Benoit;White, Richard G.;Hayes, Richard J.;Alary, Michel
通讯作者：
Alary, Michel
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Cook, Richard J.
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作者：
Finkelstein, DM;Goggins, WB;Schoenfeld, DA
通讯作者：
Schoenfeld, DA
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作者：
Cawley, Caoimhe;Wringe, Alison;Zaba, Basia
通讯作者：
Zaba, Basia
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Barnighausen, Till;Tanser, Frank;Newell, Marie-Louise
通讯作者：
Newell, Marie-Louise