On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic
On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3587254
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发表时间：
2020-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Martín Gonzalez-Eiras;Dirk Niepelt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Martín Gonzalez-Eiras;Dirk Niepelt
我们在一个简化的流行病学模型中嵌入了封锁选择，并推导出最佳封锁强度和持续时间的公式。最优政策反映了时间偏好率、流行病学因素、疫苗发现的风险率、卫生保健部门的学习效果以及由于封锁而造成的产出损失的严重性。在我们的基准数据中，美国目前经历的“新冠肺炎”冲击最有可能引发经济活动减少三分之二，持续约50天，或约占年度国内生产总值的9.5%。
We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as currently experienced by the US optimally triggers a reduction in economic activity by two thirds, for about 50 days, or approximately 9.5 percent of annual GDP.