Psychosocial predictors of adult antisocial personality and adult convictions.
Psychosocial predictors of adult antisocial personality and adult convictions.
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成人反社会人格和成人信念的心理社会预测因素。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
D. Farrington
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Farrington
在剑桥不良发展研究中，411名南伦敦男性从8岁起就被跟踪调查。本文研究了8 - 10岁时测量的社会心理风险因素预测18 - 32岁时反社会人格测量和21 - 40岁之间信念的能力。最重要的童年预测因素是父母有罪，家庭规模大，智力或成就低，以及育儿因素，包括年轻的母亲和破碎的家庭。根据20多年前的童年风险因素预测32岁时反社会人格的准确性令人惊讶：父母在10岁时被定罪的男孩中，有近一半在32岁时反社会，而其余的男孩中有六分之一反社会。超过60%的8 - 10岁高危男孩在32岁时变得反社会。虽然目前的研究表明，成人的反社会行为和犯罪行为在多大程度上可以在儿童时期预测，但需要更多的研究来建立相关的精确因果机制。
In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, 411 South London males have been followed up since age 8. This article investigates the ability of psychosocial risk factors measured at age 8 - 10 to predict antisocial personality measures at ages 18 and 32 and convictions between ages 21 and 40. The most important childhood predictors were a convicted parent, large family size, low intelligence or attainment, and child-rearing factors, including a young mother and a disrupted family. The accuracy of prediction of antisocial personality at age 32 on the basis of childhood risk factors measured more than 20 years before was surprising: nearly half of boys with a convicted parent at age 10 were antisocial at age 32, compared with one in six of the remainder. Over 60% of boys very high risk at age 8 - 10 became antisocial at age 32. While the present research shows how far adult antisocial and criminal behavior can be predicted in childhood, more research is needed to establish the precise causal mechanisms involved.