Species loss: a crude view of climate
Species loss: a crude view of climate
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物种丧失：对气候的粗略看法
作者：
Nikhil Advani;Susan Evans;Arjette Stevens
通讯 滋养并养活世界 全球农业和粮食系统营养专家组上周发布的报告警告说，只有在规模和承诺上与针对艾滋病毒/艾滋病和疟疾的应对措施相媲美的应对措施才足以应对不断变化的粮食系统的挑战（参见 www.glopan.org/foresight）。我们的独立专家利用模型和趋势分析来审视饮食和粮食系统，以及到 2030 年它们将如何变化。目前，来自 193 个国家的 30 亿人的饮食质量较差，近一半国家的人口正日益面临严重的营养不良，并伴有体重增加和肥胖。我们发现，不良饮食造成的死亡和发病风险现在大于不安全性行为、酗酒、吸毒和吸烟的综合风险。作为全球小组秘书处主任，我与该小组密切合作编写了这份报告，该报告建议粮食系统应重新定位，从养活人类转向滋养人类。行动必须超越农业，涵盖贸易、环境和健康，利用私营部门的力量，让消费者能够要求更好的饮食。桑迪·托马斯全球农业和营养食品系统小组，伦敦。 sandy.thomas@glopan.org 物种丧失：对生物多样性的不同看法 Sean Maxwell 及其同事认为，农业是生物多样性的最大敌人之一，但农业本身依赖于生物多样性（Nature 536, 143–145; 2016）。为了理解这一点，我们需要认识到对生物多样性的看法可能取决于具体情况。作者实际上指的是自然资源保护主义者主要感兴趣的有限范围的物种，可以称为“生物多样性保护”。支持全球初级粮食生产和许多其他行业的生物多样性，从药物生物勘探和工程仿生学到生物害虫控制（例如，参见 go.nature.com/2croaxv），可能会被归类为“生产生物多样性”。生产生物多样性是巨大且不可替代的。它至少占所有物种的 90%，主要是无脊椎动物（例如传粉昆虫）和微生物。它拥有地球上大部分的化学、遗传和代谢多样性。对保护生物多样性的全球评估至关重要。但它必须承认人类所依赖的生物多样性的大部分，否则“生物多样性”这个词就有可能失去其科学、经济和社会意义。安德鲁·贝蒂·麦考瑞大学，澳大利亚悉尼。 andrew.beattie@mq.edu.au 物种丧失：对气候的粗略看法 我们认为，Sean Maxwell 及其同事对生物多样性丧失的风险因素的分析应该包括对气候变化的更细致的看法（Nature 536, 143–145; 2016）。例如，作者在评估气候对生物多样性的威胁时似乎过于依赖极端气候危害。他们还忽视了这样一个事实，即 IUCN 红色名录上物种的灭绝风险标准往往无法捕捉气候带来的风险（例如，参见 W. B. Foden 等人 PLoS ONE 8, e65427; 2013）。他们没有考虑缓慢发生的变化，例如栖息地范围的变化和海洋酸化，也没有考虑对野生动物的间接威胁，例如人类对气候变化对粮食安全影响的反应——特别是在贫困人口和热带地区。麦克斯韦等人。这意味着针对新（气候）威胁和旧（历史）威胁的努力是相互排斥的。我们发现这种做法过于简单化并且适得其反：解决方案需要是综合性和附加性的。他们还应该考虑到系统交互——威胁不会孤立发生。我们认为，应对气候变化的复杂性和不确定性需要新的想法，重点关注对物种的新威胁。如果没有这些，专门的保护干预措施从长远来看就会失败。尼基尔·阿德瓦尼世界野生动物基金会，美国华盛顿特区。苏珊·埃文斯 (Susan Evans) 世界自然基金会加拿大分会，加拿大多伦多。 Arjette Stevens 世界自然基金会荷兰分会，荷兰宰斯特。 nikhil.advani@wwfus.org 促进重新造林将通过碳认证带来经济利益。相比之下，岛上森林地区的动物非法狩猎现象十分普遍。被猎杀的物种包括树蹄兔 (Dendrohyrax validus)、蓝羚羊 (Philantomba monticola)、彭巴狐蝠 (Pteropus voeltzkowi) 和椰子蟹 (Birgus latro)。我们的案例研究强调了减缓气候变化与保护热带地区生物多样性之间的不匹配。在这里，保护树木和减少气候变化的有效努力可能只会保护一片空旷的森林。蒂姆·卡罗 (Tim Caro)，莫尼克·博格霍夫·穆德 (Monique Borgerhoff Mulder) 美国戴维斯加州大学。 tmcaro@ucdavis.edu 物种丧失：气候计划只拯救树木 对移动电话和时间紧迫的天气传输使用的带宽的竞争只是故事的一部分（参见 Nature 535, 208–209; 2016）。事实上，移动网络本身正在成为监测天气的重要工具。由于天气条件会降低蜂窝网络中商业微波链路传输的无线电信号的强度，因此它们可以充当虚拟环境监测设施。例如，商业蜂窝数据已被用于跟踪降水、雾、近地表湿度（例如，参见 N. David 等人 Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 1687–1698; 2015）和露水（O. Harel 等人 IEEE Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens. 8, 4396–4404; 2015），并进行预测洪水（这一发现于 2009 年荣获世界知识产权组织奖章）。 Pinhas Alpert，哈吉特梅塞尔特拉维夫大学，以色列。诺姆大卫康奈尔大学，伊萨卡，纽约，美国。 pinhas@post.tau.ac.il 我们一致认为，保护生物多样性的挑战（将在即将召开的《生物多样性公约》缔约方大会上审议）绝不能因气候变化问题而黯然失色（见 S. Maxwell 等人，Nature 536, 143–145；2016）。这些是互补但独立的问题。例如，在坦桑尼亚奔巴岛，我们对 11 个村庄的村庄环境委员会、男性和女性焦点小组以及随机选择的家庭进行了系统但开放式的访谈，并以去年在 18 个区进行的不那么密集的访谈作为支持（结果未发表）。这些揭示了对当前气候变化的危险以及待决的 REDD+ 计划（减少森林砍伐和森林退化造成的排放）的优点的普遍认识。当地期望很高，希望减少森林砍伐，移动网络有助于天气监测 devres s s th girlll Aeruta Nregnirp Sfotrapd e tim i L sreh sil b u P nallim c a M 2 9 SEP T E M B E R 2 0 1 6 |音量 5 3 7 |自然 | 6 1 7
Correspondence Nourish as well as feed the world The report released last week by the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition warns that only a response comparable in scale and commitment to that directed against HIV/AIDS and malaria will be sufficient to meet the challenge of changing food systems (see www.glopan.org/ foresight). Our independent experts used modelling and trend analysis to scrutinize diets and food systems and how these could change by 2030. Three billion people from 193 countries now have poor- quality diets, and populations in nearly half of all countries are increasingly experiencing serious under-nutrition that is coupled with weight gain and obesity. We find that the risk posed by poor diets to mortality and morbidity is now greater than the combined risks of unsafe sex, alcohol, drug and tobacco use. As director of the Global Panel’s secretariat, I have worked closely with the panel in producing this report, which recommends that food systems should be repositioned from feeding people to nourishing them. Action must go beyond agriculture to encompass trade, the environment and health, harnessing the power of the private sector and empowering consumers to demand better diets. Sandy Thomas Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, London. sandy.thomas@glopan.org Species loss: diverse takes on biodiversity Sean Maxwell and colleagues argue that agriculture is one of the greatest enemies of biodiversity — yet agriculture itself depends on biodiversity (Nature 536, 143–145; 2016). To make sense of this, we need to recognize that perspectives on biodiversity can depend on context. The authors are really referring to a limited range of species that are mainly of interest to conservationists, which could be called ‘conservation biodiversity’. The biodiversity that supports global primary food production and a host of other industries, from pharmaceutical bioprospecting and engineering biomimetics to biological pest control (see, for example, go.nature.com/2croaxv), might then be classed as ‘production biodiversity’. Production biodiversity is enormous and irreplaceable. It constitutes at least 90% of all species — predominantly invertebrates (such as pollinators) and microbes. It harbours most of the planet’s chemical, genetic and metabolic diversity. Global assessment of conservation biodiversity is crucial. But it must acknowledge the greater part of biodiversity on which humanity depends, or the very word ‘biodiversity’ risks losing its scientific, economic and social meaning. Andrew Beattie Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia. andrew.beattie@mq.edu.au Species loss: a crude view of climate We contend that Sean Maxwell and colleagues’ analysis of risk factors for biodiversity loss should have included a more nuanced view of climate change (Nature 536, 143–145; 2016) . For example, the authors seem to rely too much on extreme climate hazards in assessing climate threats to biodiversity. They also overlook the fact that the extinction-risk criteria for species on the IUCN Red List often fail to capture risks from climate (see, for example, W. B. Foden et al. PLoS ONE 8, e65427; 2013). They do not consider slow-onset changes, such as habitat-range shifts and ocean acidification, or indirect threats to wildlife, such as human responses to climate-change effects on food security — particularly in poor populations and tropical regions. Maxwell et al. imply that efforts directed against new (climate) and old (historical) threats are mutually exclusive. We find this simplistic and counterproductive: solutions need to be integrative and additive. They should also have accounted for system interactions — threats don’t occur in isolation. In our view, tackling the complexity and uncertainties of climate change calls for new ideas that focus on emerging threats to species. Without these, dedicated conservation interventions will fail over the long term. Nikhil Advani World Wildlife Fund, Washington DC, USA. Susan Evans WWF Canada, Toronto, Canada. Arjette Stevens WWF Netherlands, Zeist, the Netherlands. nikhil.advani@wwfus.org promoting reforestation will result in financial benefits through carbon accreditation. By contrast, there is widespread, illegal hunting of animals in forest patches across the island. Hunted species include tree hyraxes (Dendrohyrax validus), blue duikers (Philantomba monticola), Pemba flying foxes (Pteropus voeltzkowi) and coconut crabs (Birgus latro). Our case study highlights the mismatch between climate- change mitigation and conserving biodiversity in the tropics. Here, effective efforts to protect trees and reduce climate change may result in conserving only an empty forest. Tim Caro, Monique Borgerhoff Mulder University of California, Davis, USA. tmcaro@ucdavis.edu Species loss: climate plan saves only trees Competition over the bandwidths used by mobile phones and time- critical weather transmissions is only part of the story (see Nature 535, 208–209; 2016). In fact, mobile networks are themselves becoming an important tool for monitoring the weather. Because weather conditions reduce the strength of radio signals transmitted by commercial microwave links in cellular networks, they can act as a virtual environmental- monitoring facility. For instance, commercial cellular data are already being used to track precipitation, fog, near-surface moisture (see, for example, N. David et al. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 1687–1698; 2015) and dew (O. Harel et al. IEEE Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens. 8, 4396–4404; 2015), and to predict floods (a discovery awarded the World Intellectual Property Organization Medal in 2009). Pinhas Alpert, Hagit Messer Tel Aviv University, Israel. Noam David Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA. pinhas@post.tau.ac.il We agree that the challenge of protecting biodiversity — to be considered at the upcoming Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity — must not be eclipsed by climate-change concerns (see S. Maxwell et al. Nature 536, 143–145; 2016). These are complementary but separate issues. On Pemba Island, Tanzania, for example, we conducted systematic but open-ended interviews with village environmental committees, male and female focus groups, and randomly selected households in 11 villages, backed up by less- intensive interviews in 18 wards last year (unpublished results). These revealed a general understanding of the dangers of immediate climate change and of the merits of a pending REDD+ programme (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation). Local expectations are high that reducing deforestation and Mobile networks aid weather monitoring d e v r e s e r s t h g i r l l A e r u t a N r e g n i r p S f o t r a p d e t i m i L s r e h s i l b u P n a l l i m c a M 2 9 S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6 | VO L 5 3 7 | NAT U R E | 6 1 7