Risk Concession Model for Build/Operate/Transfer Contract Projects
Risk Concession Model for Build/Operate/Transfer Contract Projects
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(2005)131:2(211
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发表时间：
2005-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Liyin Shen;Yuzhe Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liyin Shen;Yuzhe Wu
本文将BOT特许权模型推广到建立BOT合同项目的风险特许权模型。特许权期限的确定是BOT合同中最重要的决策之一。BOTCCM提供了一种替代方法，以帮助确定特许权期限，可以保护投资者和有关政府的基本利益。然而，该模型的使用存在一个主要局限性，即没有考虑风险对模型中各种经济变量估计的影响。本研究考虑了风险对BOTCcM模型的影响，并提出了一个额外的风险让步模型。该模型为特许权期限的确定提供了一种既考虑风险影响，又能保护投资者和有关政府双方基本利益的方法。通过一个假设的案例，说明了运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法制定风险让步期的过程。
This paper extends the build-operate-transfer (BOT) concession model (BOTCcM) to establishing a risk concession model for BOT contract projects. The decision for a concession period is one of the most important decisions in determining a BOT contract. BOTCcM presents an alternative method to assist in determining a concession period that can protect the basic interests of both the investor and the government concerned. However, there is a major limitation in using the model, namely it gives no consideration to the impacts of risks on the estimation of various economic variables in the model. This study considers the risk impacts to the BOTCcM model and presents an additional risk concession model. This model provides an approach for formulating a concession period to consider the impacts of risks and, at the same time, protect the basic interests of both the investor and the government concerned. A hypothetical case is used to show the procedures of formulating the risk concession period through the assistance of the Monte Carlo simulation method.