Great divergence, consumer revolution and the reorganization of textile markets: Evidence from Hamburg’s import trade, eighteenth century
Great divergence, consumer revolution and the reorganization of textile markets: Evidence from Hamburg’s import trade, eighteenth century
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大分流、消费革命和纺织品市场重组：来自十八世纪汉堡进口贸易的证据
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发表时间：
2017
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Westfälische
中科院分区：
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作者：
U. Pfister;Westfälische
该研究将 1733 年至 1798 年 36 年间约 180,000 份进口申报信息与 40 多种商品的公布价格相结合，得出汉堡海外贸易进口数量的总体和具体商品估计值。为了解释特定商品的进口轨迹，对简单的进口需求函数进行了估计。由于汉堡当时已经成为德国主要海港，因此可以利用其进口信息得出有关德国对外贸易总体演变的初步陈述。主要结果如下： 1736年至1794年间，进口数量平均增长至少0.7%，略快于人口和GDP的增长，意味着开放程度的提高。相对进口价格没有下降，这表明运输技术的创新和商业惯例的改进对海外贸易增长没有起到任何作用。殖民地杂货的实际进口每年增长 1.6%，略低于现代早期欧洲大西洋贸易粗略衡量的增长率（约 2%）。在 18 世纪最后 30 年，仅糖和咖啡就占海外进口总额的 60% 以上。相比之下，1678年构成最重要进口商品类别的葡萄酒和地中海杂货的实际进口量下降了-0.7%。一个。 1736 年至 1798 年。地中海饮料和杂货的相对价格随着时间的推移而上涨，尤其是葡萄酒的进口需求与美国杂货的进口需求呈现出正的交叉价格弹性。因此，新世界商品的生产受益于无限的土地供应和强迫劳动的可用性，取代了土地密集型的旧世界商品，后者的供应日益受到边际成本上升的限制。然而，考虑到相对价格的变化，殖民商品进口的正向时间趋势仍然存在，并且不能用单位要素实际收入的变化来解释，单位要素实际收入在 1730 年代至 1790 年代初下降（非技术工人的日工资、土地租金）。在 18 世纪前 30 年的强劲增长之后，棉花产品的进口持续下降，直到 1771 年至 1786 年达到低谷。此后，进口再次迅速增长，反映出英国工业革命的影响。 1753 年至 c. 1790 年，通过荷兰北部（但不是通过汉堡）的原棉进口量大幅增加，表明进口替代。国内纺织品生产的扩张可以部分解释殖民地杂货进口需求的积极时间趋势：农村家庭通过动员季节性劳动力储备从事与市场相关的活动来补偿实际工资的下降。增加的收入被花在兴奋剂和易于吸收的碳水化合物上，以适应微薄的口粮。结果为“大分流”和“勤勉革命”的论点提供了有力的支持。
The study combines information on some 180,000 import declarations for 36 years in 1733–1798 with published prices for forty-odd commodities to produce aggregate and commodity specific estimates of import quantities in Hamburg’s overseas trade. In order to explain the trajectory of imports of specific commodities estimates of simple import demand functions are carried out. Since Hamburg constituted the principal German sea port already at that time, information on its imports can be used to derive tentative statements on the aggregate evolution of Germany’s foreign trade. The main results are as follows: Import quantities grew at an average rate of at least 0.7 per cent between 1736 and 1794, which is a bit faster than the increase of population and GDP, implying an increase in openness. Relative import prices did not fall, which suggests that innovations in transport technology and improvement of business practices played no role in overseas trade growth. Real imports of colonial groceries grew at 1.6 per cent annually, which is slightly below the growth rate of a crude measure of European Atlantic trade during the early modern era (about 2 per cent). During the last third of the eighteenth century sugar and coffee alone accounted for more than 60 per cent of total recorded overseas imports. By contrast, real imports of wine and Mediterranean groceries, which had constituted the most important group of imported commodities in 1678, declined at a rate of -0.7 per cent p. a. in 1736–1798. Relative prices of Mediterranean beverages and groceries increased over time, and import demand of wine in particular showed positive cross-price elasticity with American groceries. Thus, New World goods whose production benefited from unlimited land supply and the availability of forced labour substituted for land-intensive Old World Goods whose supply was increasingly constrained by rising marginal cost. However, the positive time trend of imports of colonial goods remains when taking into account shifts in relative prices, and it cannot be explained by changes in real income per factor unit, which declined (day wage of unskilled workers, land rent) between the 1730s and early 1790s. After strong growth during the first three decades of the eighteenth century imports of cotton goods declined continuously until reaching a trough in 1771–1786. Thereafter imports rose again rapidly as a reflection of the British Industrial Revolution. Between 1753 and c. 1790 there was a strong rise of imports of raw cotton through the northern Netherlands (but not through Hamburg), suggesting import substitution. The expansion of domestic textile production can partly explain the positive time trend in import demand for colonial groceries: Rural households compensated for the fall of the real wage by a mobilization of seasonal labour reserves to engage in market-related activities. Incremental income was spent on stimulants and easily absorbable carbohydrates to accommodate for meagre grain rations. The results lend qualified support for the Great Divergence and Industrious Revolution theses.