Regional flood estimation methods
Regional flood estimation methods
复制标题
区域洪水估算方法
DOI：
10.1007/978-94-011-1098-3_8
复制
发表时间：
1994
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Villani
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Rossi;P. Villani
洪水估计的区域方法进行了检查和讨论，参考三级区域化计划，考虑到空间和抽样变异的参数估计所发挥的相对作用。在第一层，识别洪水分布并估计其形状参数。空间变异性比抽样变异性小得多，可以作出同质性假设。在第二个层次上，尺度参数的估计需要利用洪水分布参数的物理意义，将信息从降雨传递到洪水。均匀性假设仍然成立的降雨分布尺度参数，即使空间站间的相关性必须考虑在内。在这个层次上，洪水分布尺度参数的估计可能需要一些地貌变量。第三级区域化的目的是获得平均年洪水（MAF）的区域估计。它的空间变异性通常远高于其抽样变异性，因此，MAF是最不适合用于区域估计的参数。这就需要在MAF和地貌气候参数之间建立因果关系，这种关系可以是纯粹的经验回归型，也可以是更基于物理的概念型。
Regional methods for flood estimation are examined and discussed, with reference to a three level regionalization scheme, to take into account the relative role played by spatial and sampling variability of the parameter estimate. At the first level, the flood distribution is identified and its shape parameters are estimated. Spatial variability is much smaller than sampling variability and the homogeneity hypothesis can be made. At the second level, the estimation of scale parameter requires an exploitation of the physical meaning of the flood distribution parameters to transfer information from rainfall to flood. The homogeneity hypothesis still holds for the rainfall distribution scale parameter, even if a spatial interstation correlation must be taken into account. At this level, the estimation of the flood distribution scale parameter could require some geomorphologic variates. The purpose of the third level of regionalization is to obtain regional estimation of the mean annual flood (MAF). Its spatial variation is generally much higher than its sampling variation, and hence, the MAF is the least suitable parameter for regional estimating. This leads to the need for causative relationships between MAF and geomorpho-climatic parameters, which can be of a merely empirical regressive type or of a more physically based conceptual type.