Energy subsidy reform for growth and equity in Egypt: The approach matters
Energy subsidy reform for growth and equity in Egypt: The approach matters
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.059
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发表时间：
2019-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Wiebelt, Manfred
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Breisinger, Clemens;Mukashov, Askar;Wiebelt, Manfred
逐步取消能源补贴已成为一些中东和北非国家政策制定者的重要议程。此类改革的影响可能因国家和政策而异。本文通过研究埃及在替代经济情景下逐步取消能源补贴的情况，对现有文献做出了贡献。特别是，我们在劳动力市场灵活性、补贴储蓄支出选择和替代社会保护措施等不同假设下考虑埃及的短期和长期经济调整。整个经济模型模拟的结果表明，能源补贴削减可能会在短期内阻碍经济增长，但根据政策措施，长期来看将改善增长前景和家庭福利。然而，调查结果还指出，从短期和长期来看，改革可能对家庭消费产生不利影响。为了抵消这种负面影响，在逐步取消能源补贴的同时，应继续并扩大有针对性的社会保护措施。
Phasing out energy subsidies is high on the agenda of policymakers in several Middle Eastern and North African countries. The impact of such reform can vary widely depending on the country and policy. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the phasing out of energy subsidies in Egypt under alternative economic scenarios. In particular, we consider Egypt's short- and long-term economic adjustment under different assumptions on labor market flexibility, spending options of subsidy savings, and alternative social protection measures. Results from economy-wide model simulations suggest that energy subsidy cuts may hamper economic growth in the short term, but depending on the policy measure, will improve growth perspectives and household welfare in the longer term. Yet, findings also point to likely adverse impacts of the reform on household consumption in the short and longer run. To counteract such negative impacts, targeted social protection measures should be continued and scaled up in parallel with the phasing out of energy subsidies.