Potential adaptive strategies for 29 sub-Saharan crops under future climate change
Potential adaptive strategies for 29 sub-Saharan crops under future climate change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0585-7
复制
发表时间：
2019-10-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Willis, Katherine J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pironon, Samuel;Etherington, Thomas R.;Willis, Katherine J.
预计气候变化将严重影响种植植物，进而影响人类生计（1-3），特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲（4-6）。增加农业植物多样性（农业生物多样性）可以克服这一全球性挑战（7-9），因为有更多关于作物及其野生亲缘植物气候耐受性的信息。利用29种主要作物及其778种野生近缘物种的超过20万份全球发生记录，我们评估了每种作物未来的气候条件如何在撒哈拉以南非洲发生变化，以及来自其他大陆的同一作物的种群、世界各地的野生近缘物种或来自撒哈拉以南非洲的其他作物是否更好地适应了该地区未来的气候条件。我们表明，目前没有经历的29种作物在SSA的气候条件预计将成为普遍的，增加生产不安全，特别是山药。然而，马铃薯、南瓜和小米等作物可以通过使用野生亲缘植物或气候生态位更适合未来条件的非非洲作物种群来维持。随着时间的推移和温室气体排放量的增加，作物的不安全性会增加，但利用农业生物多样性提高抗灾能力的潜力变化较小。因此，气候变化将影响撒哈拉以南非洲的农业，但农业生物多样性可以在短期和中期提供具有复原力的解决方案。
Climate change is expected to severely impact cultivated plants and consequently human livelihoods(1-3), especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)(4-6). Increasing agricultural plant diversity (agrobiodiversity) could overcome this global challenge(7-9) given more information on the climatic tolerance of crops and their wild relatives. Using >200,000 worldwide occurrence records for 29 major crops and 778 of their wild relative species, we assess, for each crop, how future climatic conditions are expected to change in SSA and whether populations of the same crop from other continents, wild relatives around the world or other crops from SSA are better adapted to expected future climatic conditions in the region. We show that climate conditions not currently experienced by the 29 crops in SSA are predicted to become widespread, increasing production insecurity, especially for yams. However, crops such as potato, squash and finger millet may be maintained by using wild relatives or non-African crop populations with climatic niches more suited to future conditions. Crop insecurity increases over time and with rising GHG emissions, but the potential for using agrobiodiversity for resilience is less altered. Climate change will therefore affect sub-Saharan agriculture but agrobiodiversity can provide resilient solutions in the short and medium term.