Dynamic Prospective Average and Marginal GHG Emission Factors—Scenario-Based Method for the German Power System until 2050
Dynamic Prospective Average and Marginal GHG Emission Factors—Scenario-Based Method for the German Power System until 2050
复制标题
动态预期平均和边际温室气体排放因子 - 2050 年之前德国电力系统基于情景的方法
作者：
Nils Seckinger;P. Radgen
由于德国电力供应不断发生昼夜、季节和年度变化，因此需要前瞻性动态排放因子来确定混合和灵活电气化措施的温室气体 (GHG) 排放量。为了计算平均排放因子（AEF）和边际排放因子（MEF），需要详细的电力市场数据来代表电力交易、储能以及电厂园区按单位、小时计算的部分负荷行为。使用截至2050年的两个规范情景，通过不同的温室气体排放上限，在线性优化模型中开发了与电力生产脱碳程度相关的不同电力供应排放因子（一切照常，BAU：-74％；气候行动计划，CAP：-95％）。到 2050 年，在 BAU 情景下，德国平均每小时 AEF 降至 182 gCO2eq/kWhel（2018 年：468 gCO2eq/kWhel），在 CAP 情景中，每年有 3700 个几乎无排放的供电小时，甚至降至 29 gCO2eq/kWhel。总体较高的 MEF 降至 475 和 368 gCO2eq/kWhel，更严格的排放上限最初通过更多燃气发电厂提供基本负荷而导致更高的 MEF。如果进口电力的排放强度差异较大，并且实施存储系数，则AEF将受到显着影响。因此，仅使用可再生能源在净发电量中所占的份额作为排放强度的指标是不够的。利用这些排放因子，可以计算生命周期温室气体排放量，并确定部门耦合技术的运行时间，以减少未来灵活能源系统中的温室气体排放。这是因为何时可以使用低排放电力替代化石能源具有决定性意义。
Due to the continuous diurnal, seasonal, and annual changes in the German power supply, prospective dynamic emission factors are needed to determine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hybrid and flexible electrification measures. For the calculation of average emission factors (AEF) and marginal emission factors (MEF), detailed electricity market data are required to represent electricity trading, energy storage, and the partial load behavior of the power plant park on a unit-by-unit, hourly basis. Using two normative scenarios up to 2050, different emission factors of electricity supply with regard to the degree of decarbonization of power production were developed in a linear optimization model through different GHG emission caps (Business-As-Usual, BAU: −74%; Climate-Action-Plan, CAP: −95%). The mean hourly German AEF drops to 182 gCO2eq/kWhel (2018: 468 gCO2eq/kWhel) in the BAU scenario by the year 2050 and even to 29 gCO2eq/kWhel in the CAP scenario with 3700 almost emission-free hours from power supply per year. The overall higher MEF decreases to 475 and 368 gCO2eq/kWhel, with a stricter emissions cap initially leading to a higher MEF through more gas-fired power plants providing base load. If the emission intensity of the imported electricity differs substantially and a storage factor is implemented, the AEF is significantly affected. Hence, it is not sufficient to use the share of RES in net electricity generation as an indicator of emission intensity. With these emission factors it is possible to calculate lifetime GHG emissions and determine operating times of sector coupling technologies to mitigate GHG emissions in a future flexible energy system. This is because it is decisive when lower-emission electricity can be used to replace fossil energy sources.
德国电力结构的动态二氧化碳排放因子
影响因子：
0.3
作者：
Wörner P;Müller A;Sauerwein D
通讯作者：
Sauerwein D