NOTES Predictability of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as Inferred from Ensemble Forecast Data: Intercomparison of 2001/02 and 2003/04 Winters
NOTES Predictability of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as Inferred from Ensemble Forecast Data: Intercomparison of 2001/02 and 2003/04 Winters
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发表时间：
2008
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Hirooka;T. Ichimaru
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Hirooka;T. Ichimaru
利用日本气象厅制作的业务集合 1 个月预报数据，将 2003/2004 年冬季小幅变暖和随后的大变暖的可预测性与 2001 年 12 月没有先前小幅变暖的大变暖的可预测性进行了比较。在2001年12月由放大的纬向波数1行星波引起的重大变暖的情况下，根据极地平流层纬向平均温度的可预测周期估计至少为16天，而2003/2004年冬季的变暖最多可提前9天预测。对后期变暖的这种相对降低的可预测性被认为是由于变暖事件的时间演变相当复杂，并且在变暖之前的时期小规模行星波的显着贡献。
The predictability of a minor warming and the subsequent major warming in the winter of 2003/04 is examined in comparison with that of the major warming without preceding minor warmings in December 2001 by the use of operational ensemble 1-month forecast data produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In the case of the major warming in December 2001 caused by amplified zonal wavenumber 1 planetary waves, the predictable period based on zonal mean temperatures in the polar stratosphere is estimated to be at least 16 days, while the warmings in the winter of 2003/04 are predictable at most 9 days in advance. Such relatively reduced predictability for the latter warmings is considered due to the rather complicated time evolution of the warming episodes with a significant contribution of smaller-scale planetary waves during the period prior to the warmings.