Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?
Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1
复制
发表时间：
2013-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Dobson, Andrew P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rodo, Xavier;Pascual, Mercedes;Dobson, Andrew P.
下一代气候驱动的疾病预测模型很可能需要一个机械的、动态的框架，该框架将不同地点的关键过程参数化。在接下来的20年里，一致的气候预测使人们有可能对一些重要的传染病做出预测，这些预测在很大程度上与长期排放情景的不确定性无关。特别是，气候在调节季节性疾病传播中的作用需要从传播与群体免疫的相互作用以及取决于先前感染负担的干预措施所产生的复杂动态中揭示出来。还需要取得进展，以解决公共卫生干预措施规模上气候预测和疾病预测之间的不匹配问题。在从季节到年份的时间范围内，早期预警系统应受益于目前多模型组合气候预测系统的发展，特别是在气候模型的高技能水平与发生大规模流行病的地区重合的地区。迫切需要更好地了解极端气候对传染病的作用。
The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.