Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006
Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268808000290
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发表时间：
2008-12-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Castillo-Chavez, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chowell, G.;Torre, C. A.;Castillo-Chavez, C.
对1994-2006年期间南美洲秘鲁按省份分层的每周登革热病例数进行了分析，并结合相关的人口、地理和气候数据。繁殖数量的估计值与种群大小中度相关（斯皮尔曼rho = 0.28，P = 0.03），中位数为1.76（IQR 0.83-4.46）。登革热发病率和流行持续时间均服从幂律分布（决定系数> 85%，P < 0.004）。攻击率的空间异质性是最高的沿海地区，其次是山区和丛林地区。我们的研究结果表明，在2000-2001年的大流行期间，当血清型DEN-3和DEN-4首次被鉴定时，传播事件从大到小的人口区域有一个层次（斯皮尔曼rho =-0.43。P = 0.03）。对具有高分辨率的登革热流行病时空数据的需求不仅增加了我们对登革热动态的理解，而且还将产生新的假设，并为测试创新的控制政策提供平台。
The weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994-2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman rho = 0.28, P = 0.03), had a median of 1.76 (IQR 0.83-4.46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination > 85 %, P < 0.004). Spatial heterogeneity of attack rates was highest in coastal areas followed by mountain and jungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000-2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman rho = -0.43. P = 0.03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies.