Future changes in the trading of virtual water
Future changes in the trading of virtual water
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-17400-4
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发表时间：
2020-07-20
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Graham, Neal T.;Hejazi, Mohamad, I;Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando
缺水地区严重依赖水密集型产品的进口来抵消社会经济和环境因素导致的粮食生产不足。这些交易商品中蕴藏的水，即虚拟水，越来越受到科学界的关注。然而，虚拟水交易的全面未来预测仍然缺乏。在这里，我们首次展示了 21 世纪满足国际农业需求所需的各种水量的变化。考虑到社会经济和气候条件的演变，我们估计未来的区域间虚拟水交易，并发现到 2100 年可再生水源交易可能会增加两倍，而不可再生地下水交易可能至少增加一倍。研究发现，北美流域、拉普拉塔河和尼罗河对虚拟水出口做出了巨大贡献，而到本世纪末，非洲、印度和中东的大部分地区都严重依赖虚拟水进口。对未来虚拟水交易的评估仍然缺乏。作者估算了整个世纪的全球虚拟水贸易量，发现到本世纪末，虚拟绿水出口量和虚拟蓝水出口量至少增加两倍，分别超过 3200 bcm 和 170 bcm。
Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21(st) century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century. Assessments of future virtual water trading are still lacking. Here the authors estimated the global virtual water trade throughout the century and found that virtual green water exports and virtual blue water exports at least triple to more than 3200 bcm and 170 bcm, respectively, by the end of the century.