Four Fundamental Questions to Evaluate Land Change Models with an Illustration of a Cellular Automata–Markov Model
Four Fundamental Questions to Evaluate Land Change Models with an Illustration of a Cellular Automata–Markov Model
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DOI：
10.1080/24694452.2023.2232435
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发表时间：
2023-08
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Cláudia M. Viana;R. Pontius;J. Rocha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cláudia M. Viana;R. Pontius;J. Rocha
有许多模型可供用户模拟土地变化，以便就未来土地变化与受众交流。本文提出了四个基本问题，以帮助模型用户决定是否使用任何模型：（1）用户能理解模型吗？(2)观众能理解模型吗？(3)用户可以控制模型吗？(4)模型是否解决了特定应用程序的目标？本文将这些问题应用于流行的元胞自动机-马尔可夫（CA-Markov）模型，如IDRISI的CA-Markov模块所表示的。灵敏度分析检查了120种设置模块参数的方法。验证将模块的行为与软件的文档进行比较。结果表明，元胞自动机的分配未能遵循马尔可夫模块计算的变化量。该模块的行为很可能导致用户误解验证指标并与受众进行错误沟通。因此，这四个问题的答案并不令人满意，本文的案例研究。本文的框架通过将敏感性分析与验证相结合，以一种有助于解释验证的方式，帮助用户判断模型对于特定应用程序的适当性。用户在决定是否使用任何软件的模块时应该回答这四个问题。
Numerous models exist for users to simulate land change to communicate with an audience concerning future land change. This article raises four fundamental questions to help model users decide whether to use any model: (1) Can the user understand the model? (2) Can the audience understand the model? (3) Can the user control the model? (4) Does the model address the goals of the specific application? This article applies these questions to the popular cellular automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model as IDRISI’s CA–Markov module expresses. Sensitivity analysis examines 120 ways to set the module’s parameters. Verification compares the module’s behavior to the software’s documentation. Results show that the cellular automata’s allocation fails to follow the quantity of change that the Markov module computes. The module’s behavior is likely to cause users to misinterpret the validation metrics and to miscommunicate with audiences. Thus, the answers to the four questions were not satisfactory for this article’s case study. This article’s framework helps users to judge a model’s appropriateness for a specific application by combining sensitivity analysis with verification in a manner that helps to interpret validation. Users should answer the four questions as they decide whether to use any software’s modules.