Probabilistic Aircraft Conflict Detection Considering Ensemble Weather Forecast
Probabilistic Aircraft Conflict Detection Considering Ensemble Weather Forecast
复制标题
考虑集合天气预报的概率飞机冲突检测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Rivas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Eulalia Hernández;A. Valenzuela;D. Rivas
本文分析了风的不确定性对冲突检测问题的影响。风分量建模为随机变量;风的不确定性从天气预报中获得。本文考虑了两个航路飞机在等高度、等空速、等航向和相同风条件下飞行的情况。冲突的特点是几个指标，如飞机之间的最小距离，最小距离的时间，和冲突的概率。分析是基于随机变量的转换，它演变的风的概率密度函数，以获得的概率密度函数的指标。数值结果给出了一个特定的情况下均匀分布的风。
In this paper, the effects of wind uncertainty on the problem of conflict detection are analyzed. The wind components are modeled as random variables; the wind uncertainty is obtained from weather forecasts. The case of two en-route aircraft flying at constant altitude, constant airspeed, constant course, and subject to the same wind is considered. The conflict is caracterized by several indicators, such as the minimum distance between aircraft, the time to minimum distance, and the conflict probability. The analysis is based on the transformation of random variables, which evolves the wind probability density functions to obtain the probability density functions of the indicators. Numerical results are presented for a given particular scenario with uniformly-distributed winds.