Forecasting the Central Bank's Inflation Objective is a Good Rule of Thumb
Forecasting the Central Bank's Inflation Objective is a Good Rule of Thumb
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预测央行的通胀目标是一个很好的经验法则
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.868437
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Benoît Mojon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Marie Diron;Benoît Mojon
本文首先表明，当假设未来通货膨胀率将等于中央银行宣布的通货膨胀目标时，所产生的预测误差通常至少与基于模型和公布的通货膨胀预测的预测误差一样小，而且往往更小。然后它表明，让经验法则代理人简单地相信央行将实现其预先宣布的通胀目标，会带来巨大的好处。JEL分类：E5
This paper first shows that the forecast error incurred when assuming that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target announced by the central bank is typically at least as small and often smaller than forecast errors of model-based and published inflation forecasts. It then shows that there are substantial benefits in having rule-of-thumb agents who simply trust that the central bank will deliver its pre-announced inflation objective. JEL Classification: E5