The impacts of international migration on the UK's ethnic populations
The impacts of international migration on the UK's ethnic populations
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DOI：
10.1080/1369183x.2019.1577726
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发表时间：
2020-01-02
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Norman, Paul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lomax, Nik;Wohland, Pia;Norman, Paul
随着脱欧谈判的进行，英国面临人口不确定性。英国脱欧对进出英国的国际移民产生影响，这取决于未来的移民政策以及英国作为劳动力市场的吸引力。与此同时，由于过去的移民，英国人口正在经历种族多样化。为了探索英国未来的种族多样性，我们运行四个预测方案。三个国际移徙情景，根据与欧盟的分离程度而不同，与假设国际移徙为零的参考预测一起实施。各族裔群体受到这些移徙情景的不同影响，这取决于国际移徙对人口增长的贡献和人口势头的程度。白色英国人和爱尔兰人在所有英国脱欧情景下都会失去人口，加勒比黑人人口在除一种情景外的所有情景下都会下降。白色其他、印度、中国、其他亚洲和其他群体在软脱欧和硬脱欧情景下将显示出低得多的增长。混血、巴基斯坦、孟加拉、非洲黑人和其他黑人群体的增长只会受到轻微影响。然而，在每一种情况下，英国的人口预计将继续增长，老龄化和多样化。
The United Kingdom faces demographic uncertainty, as negotiations for leaving the European Union (Brexit) proceed. Brexit has implications for international migration into and out of the UK, dependent on future immigration policy and on how attractive the UK will be as a labour market. At the same time, the UK population is experiencing ethnic diversification, consequent on past immigration. To explore the UK's future ethnic diversity, we run four projection scenarios. Three international migration scenarios, varying by the extent of the break with the EU, are implemented together with a reference projection assuming zero international migration. Ethnic groups are differently affected by these migration scenarios, depending on the contribution of international migration to population growth and the extent of demographic momentum. The White British and Irish lose population under all Brexit scenarios and the Black Caribbean population declines in all but one scenario. The White Other, Indian, Chinese, Other Asian and Other groups will show much lower growth under Soft and Hard Brexit scenarios. The growth of the Mixed, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black African and Black Other groups will only be affected marginally. Under every scenario, however, the UK's population is projected to continue to grow, age and diversify.