Comparison of Trends in Self-reported Cigarette Consumption and Sales in England, 2011 to 2018
Comparison of Trends in Self-reported Cigarette Consumption and Sales in England, 2011 to 2018
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DOI：
10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.10161
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
影响因子：
13.8
通讯作者：
Brown, Jamie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jackson, Sarah E.;Beard, Emma;Brown, Jamie
在许多国家，人口的香烟消费量正在下降。对长期和短期变化的准确估计对于政策评估和规划至关重要。用于进行这些估计的调查数据和销售数据各自具有重要的潜在偏差，因此需要使用不同方法进行三角测量以进行稳健估计。为了比较来自全国代表性调查的英格兰卷烟消费的月估计和记录的卷烟销售，并对自2011年以来卷烟消费变化的准确估计进行三角测量。这项研究使用基于调查数据和记录的卷烟销售的时间序列分析来估计和比较2011年至2018年英格兰人口卷烟消费的趋势。调查参与者是英国每月1700名16岁或以上的代表性样本。主要结果和措施2011年8月至2018年2月的月度卷烟零售数据来自数据机构。每月自我报告的香烟消费量收集在同一时期使用吸烟Toolkit Study.Results共136677人（51.1%女性，平均[SD]年龄，46.7 [18.8]岁）进行了调查。在研究期间，根据调查数据，英国平均每月卷烟消费量为28.5亿支（95% CI，27.8亿至29.3亿支），而根据销售数据估计为30.8亿支（95% CI，30.3亿至31.3亿支）。根据调查数据，在整个期间，卷烟消费量下降了24.4%，根据销售数据下降了24.1%。根据调查数据和销售数据，这分别相当于每月减少1.184亿支和1.174亿支香烟（或每年约14亿支）。在对潜在趋势进行调整后，卷烟消费量的逐月变化非常一致;调查估计的卷烟消费量的1%变化与0.98%的（95%可信区间，0.53%1.44%）结论和相关性调查数据和销售数据密切相关，显示自2011年以来，英格兰的卷烟总销量下降了近四分之一，每年减少10亿支香烟。两种方法之间的一致性增加了吸烟工具包研究和销售数据提供的参数准确性的置信度。这表明，卷烟消费量的估计变化是稳健的，为政策评估和规划提供了有意义的基础。
IMPORTANCE Population cigarette consumption is declining in many countries. Accurate estimates of long- and short-term changes are vital for policy evaluation and planning. Survey data and sales data that are used to make these estimates each have important potential biases, so triangulation using different methods is required for robust estimation.OBJECTIVES To compare monthly estimates of cigarette consumption in England from a nationally representative survey and recorded cigarette sales and to triangulate an accurate estimate of changes in cigarette consumption since 2011.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study used time series analyses based on survey data and recorded cigarette sales to estimate and compare trends in population cigarette consumption in England from 2011 to 2018. Survey participants were representative samples of 1700 people aged 16 years or older each month in England.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Monthly cigarette retail sales data from August 2011 through February 2018 were obtained from a data agency. Monthly self-reports of cigarette consumption were collected over the same period using the Smoking Toolkit Study.RESULTS A total of 136 677 individuals (51.1% female; mean [SD] age, 46.7 [18.8] years) were surveyed. Over the study period, mean monthly cigarette consumption in England was 2.85 billion (95% CI, 2.78 billion to 2.93 billion) cigarettes based on survey data compared with 3.08 billion (95% CI, 3.03 billion to 3.13 billion) estimated from sales data. Over the whole period, cigarette consumption declined by 24.4% based on survey data and 24.1% based on sales data. This equated to 118.4 million and 117.4 million fewer cigarettes consumed per month (or approximately 1.4 billion per year) based on survey data and sales data, respectively. After adjusting for underlying trends, month-by-month changes in cigarette consumption were closely aligned; a 1% change in survey estimated cigarette consumption was associated with a 0.98% (95% CI, 0.53%1.44%) change in sales estimates.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Survey data and sales data were closely aligned in showing that overall cigarette sales in England have declined by almost a quarter since 2011, amounting to more than 1 billion fewer cigarettes smoked each year. The alignment between the 2 methods provides increased confidence in the accuracy of parameters provided by the Smoking Toolkit Study and sales data. It indicates that estimated changes in cigarette consumption are robust and provide a meaningful basis for policy evaluation and planning.