Assessing rice productivity and adaptation strategies for Southeast Asia under climate change through multi-scale crop modeling
Assessing rice productivity and adaptation strategies for Southeast Asia under climate change through multi-scale crop modeling
复制标题
通过多尺度作物模拟评估气候变化下东南亚水稻生产力和适应策略
DOI：
10.1016/j.agsy.2015.12.001
复制
发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Vang, Seng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chun, Jong Ahn;Li, Sanai;Vang, Seng
水稻（Oryza sativa L.）是东南亚最重要的主食作物之一，该地区也特别容易受到气候变化的影响。我们介绍了一种多尺度作物建模方法，以评估气候变化对东南亚未来水稻产量的影响。可以结合区域和田间作物模型的优势，制定国家和农民一级的适应战略。从协调区域气候降尺度试验（CORDEX）-东亚收集的气候变量被用作运行GLAM-水稻和CERES-水稻作物模型的输入。GLAM-Rice模型的模拟结果表明，柬埔寨是东南亚国家中，如果没有充分的适应措施，气候变化导致的水稻产量减少将是最大的（在RCP 8.5下，21世纪80年代相对于基线期1991 - 2000年减少约45%）。考虑CO2施肥效应的模型模拟结果表明，与没有灌溉的情景相比，在RCP 8.5下，改善灌溉将在21世纪80年代大幅提高水稻产量（高达8.2- 42.7%，柬埔寨和泰国的产量增幅最大）。此外，通过进一步调查柬埔寨灌溉影响的空间分布，确定了受益最大的网格单元（北纬12.6度和东经103.8度）。对于这个网格单元，使用CERES-Rice模型来制定适应措施的最佳组合。结果表明，在RCP 4.5情景下，21世纪80年代，Sen Pidao品种的氮肥施用量加倍（100 kg N ha（-1））将使水稻产量增加3.9%，而Phka Rumduol品种在RCP 4.5下的水稻产量预计将下降。对于这两个品种，结果表明，除了100公斤氮公顷（-1）施肥量和种植调整，应采用额外的适应策略，以抵消所有的负面影响，预计在21世纪80年代的气候变化对水稻产量在RCP 8.5。它的结论是，这项研究可以是有用的，以提高在东南亚的粮食安全提供明智的建议，有效的适应战略。(C)2015爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is one of the most important staple food crops in Southeast Asia, a region that is also particularly vulnerable to climate change. We introduced a multi-scale crop modeling approach to assess the impacts of climate change on future rice yields in Southeast Asia. National- and farmer-level adaptation strategies may be developed by combining the advantages from regional- and field-scale crop models. Climate variables collected from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX)-East Asia were used as inputs to run the GLAM-Rice and CERES-Rice crop models. Simulations produced by the GLAM-Rice model identified Cambodia as the country in Southeast Asia where the reduction in rice yields under climate change will be the largest (a decrease of approximately 45% in the 2080s under RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 19912000) without adequate adaptation. The results of the model simulations considering the CO2 fertilization effect showed that improved irrigation will largely increase rice yields (up to 8.2-42.7%, with the greatest increases in yields in Cambodia and Thailand) in the 2080s under RCP 8.5 compared to a scenario without irrigation. In addition, the grid cell that will benefit the most (12.6 degrees N and 103.8 degrees E) was identified through further investigation of the spatial distribution of the effects of irrigation for Cambodia. For this grid cell, the CERES-Rice model was used to develop the best combination of adaptation measures. The results show that while a doubled application rate of nitrogen fertilizer (100 kg N ha(-1)) will increase rice yields by 3.9% in the 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario for the Sen Pidao cultivar, a decrease in rice yield was projected for the Phka Rumduol cultivar under RCP 4.5. For both cultivars, the results show that additional adaptation strategies besides the 100 kg N ha(-1) fertilizer application rate and planting adjustment should be applied in order to offset all of the negative projected impacts of climate change on rice yields in the 2080s under RCP 8.5. It is concluded that this study can be useful to enhance food security in Southeast Asia by providing informed recommendations for efficacious adaptation strategies. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.