A Game Changer in Payment Habits: Evidence from Daily Data During a Pandemic
A Game Changer in Payment Habits: Evidence from Daily Data During a Pandemic
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支付习惯的游戏规则改变者：大流行期间每日数据的证据
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3826478
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Giorgia Rocco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guerino Ardizzi;A. Nobili;Giorgia Rocco
我们利用COVID-19疫情的爆发作为一个自然实验，探讨现金与其他支付工具之间的关系，该实验对支付行业和消费者的习惯产生了外源性影响。我们依靠谷歌搜索数据，以及官方公布的一系列新感染病例来衡量疫情的严重程度，并应用当地预测方法来评估对支付习惯的影响。我们发现，从现金到基于卡的交易，特别是使用非接触式和电子商务选项，存在巨大而持久的替代效应。对感染的恐惧导致每种支付工具都产生了新的隐性成本，从而从需求方影响支付选择，并通过非现金交易促进消费。此外，现金周期的技术限制和封锁措施增加了出于预防目的的现金需求。旨在加速数字经济和最具创新性的支付手段的政策可能使经济活动更能抵御不利冲击。与此同时，从社会和经济角度看，确保现金的充足和有效供应仍然至关重要。
We explore the relationship between cash and other payment instruments using the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment exogenously affecting both the payment industry and consumers’ habits. We rely on Google search data, as well as on the official series of new cases of infection to measure the intensity of the pandemic, and apply local projection methods to assess the effects on payment habits. We find a large and persistent substitution effect from cash to card-based transactions, especially using contactless and e-commerce options. The fear of infection has led to a new implicit cost associated to each payment instrument, thus affecting payment choices from the demand-side and boosting consumption with non-cash transactions. Moreover, technical constraints on the cash cycle and the lockdown measures have increased the demand for cash for precautionary purposes. Policies aiming at accelerating the digital economy and the most innovative means of payment can potentially make economic activity more resilient to adverse shocks. At the same time, ensuring the adequate and efficient availability of cash remains essential from a social and economic perspective.