Measuring improvements in the disaster resilience of communities
Measuring improvements in the disaster resilience of communities
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DOI：
10.1193/1.1775796
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发表时间：
2004-08-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Shinozuka, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chang, SE;Shinozuka, M
本文通过定量措施的发展和应用，论证了灾害恢复的概念。随着建设抗灾社区的理念逐渐得到认可，我们需要新的方法，这些方法不仅要估算经济损失，还要解决抗灾能力的复杂、多方面问题。这些方面包括技术、组织、社会和经济方面。本文首先提出了弹性措施，将未来灾害的预期损失与社区的地震性能目标联系起来。然后以田纳西州孟菲斯市的供水系统为例，展示了这些措施。现有的地震损失估算模型为弹性的量化提供了一个起点。分析比较了两种抗震改造策略，发现只有一种策略比现状更能提高社区的恢复能力。然而，它并没有将弹性提高到足够的程度。这项工作表明，复原力框架对指导缓解和备灾工作很有价值。然而，为了充分实现这一概念，需要在损失估计模型之外进行新的弹性研究。
This paper demonstrates the concept of disaster resilience through the development and application of quantitative measures. As the idea of building disaster-resilient communities gains acceptance, new methods are needed that go beyond estimating monetary losses and that address the complex, multiple dimensions of resilience. These dimensions include technical, organizational, social, and economic facets. This paper first proposes resilience measures that relate expected losses in future disasters to a community's seismic performance objectives. It then demonstrates these measures in a case study of the Memphis, Tennessee, water delivery system. An existing earthquake loss estimation model provides a starting point for quantifying resilience. The analysis compares two seismic retrofit strategies and finds that only one improves community resilience over the status quo. However, it does not raise resilience to an adequate degree. The exercise demonstrates that the resilience framework can be valuable for guiding mitigation and preparedness efforts. However, to fully implement the concept, new research on resilience is needed that goes beyond loss estimation modeling.