''Nephritic flares'' are predictors of bad long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis
''Nephritic flares'' are predictors of bad long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis
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DOI：
10.1038/ki.1996.528
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发表时间：
1996-12-01
影响因子：
19.6
通讯作者：
Ponticelli, C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Moroni, G;Quaglini, S;Ponticelli, C
我们回顾分析了70例狼疮性肾炎患者的病程，随访时间5~30年，中位数127个月。患者10年生存率为100%，20年生存率为86%。未达到终点(血肌酐持续加倍)的概率在10年时为85%，在20年时为72%。多因素分析显示，男性(P=0.005)和红细胞压积低于36%(P=0.01)与终点(相对危险度分别为7.5和14)有关。然后我们分析了肾脏暴发的作用，其定义为血浆肌酐迅速增加或蛋白尿增加。任何类型的肾出血患者到达终点的概率都高于从未出现肾出血的患者(P=0.03；相对危险度6.8)。Bares伴血浆肌酐快速升高的患者发生终点的风险是无红斑或仅有Bares伴蛋白尿的患者的27倍(P
We retrospectively analyzed the courses of 70 patients with lupus nephritis followed for 5 to 30 years (median 127 months). Patient survival was 100% at 10 years and 86% at 20 years. The probability of not reaching the end point (persistent doubling of plasma creatinine) was 85% at 10 years and 72% at 20 years. A multivariate analysis of variables at presentation showed that male sex (P=0.005) and hematocrit lower than 36% (P=0.01) were associated with the end point (relative risk 7.5 and 14). We then analyzed for the role of renal flare-ups, defined either as a rapid increase in plasma creatinine or by an increase in proteinuria. Patients with renal Bares of any type had more probabilities of reaching the end point than patients who never had flares (P=0.03; relative risk 6.8). The hazard of the end point was 27 times higher in patients with Bares along with rapid increased in plasma creatinine than in patients without flares or with Bares with proteinuria alone (P