On the Environmental Determinants of COVID-19 Seasonality.
On the Environmental Determinants of COVID-19 Seasonality.
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gh000413
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发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Eltahir EAB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Choi YW;Tuel A;Eltahir EAB
病毒性呼吸道疾病（VRD），如流感和COVID-19，被认为在冬季比夏季传播得更快。以前有人认为，寒冷和干燥的条件比温暖和潮湿的气候更有利于VRD的传播，尽管这种关系似乎仅限于温带地区，因果关系还不清楚。于二零一九年年底中国武汉首次报告COVID-19后，导致COVID-19的严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2已成为严重的全球公共卫生问题。目前尚不清楚这种新型呼吸道疾病最终是否会被证明是一种季节性地方病。在这里，我们认为空气干燥能力（ADC;一种控制病毒携带液滴命运/演变的大气状态变量）和紫外线辐射（UV）可能是在季节时间尺度上塑造COVID-19传播的环境决定因素。与温度和湿度不同，这些变量提供了一个基于物理的框架，与COVID-19的明显季节性变化一致，并在广泛的气候范围内普遍存在（例如，德国和印度）。由于已知这种疾病受到社会，生物和环境决定因素的复合效应的影响，因此本研究并不认为这些环境决定因素完全影响COVID-19的季节性。然而，我们认为ADC和UV在季节尺度上对COVID-19动态起着重要作用。这些发现可以帮助指导制定一个健全的适应战略，以应对未来季节的大流行。COVID-19的季节性似乎遵循一些环境变量的季节性空气干燥能力和紫外线辐射的季节性与COVID-19的季节性在气候区一致匹配空气湿度和温度的季节性与COVID-19的季节性在温带气候中匹配，但在热带季风气候中不匹配
Viral respiratory diseases (VRDs), such as influenza and COVID‐19, are thought to spread faster during winter than during summer. It has been previously argued that cold and dry conditions are more conducive to the transmission of VRDs than warm and humid climates, although this relationship appears restricted to temperate regions and the causal relationship is not well understood. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing COVID‐19 has emerged as a serious global public health problem after the first COVID‐19 reports in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. It is still unclear whether this novel respiratory disease will ultimately prove to be a seasonal endemic disease. Here, we suggest that air drying capacity (ADC; an atmospheric state variable that controls the fate/evolution of the virus‐laden droplets) and ultraviolet radiation (UV) are probable environmental determinants in shaping the transmission of COVID‐19 at the seasonal time scale. These variables, unlike temperature and humidity, provide a physically based framework consistent with the apparent seasonal variability in COVID‐19 and prevalent across a broad range of climates (e.g., Germany and India). Since this disease is known to be influenced by the compounding effect of social, biological, and environmental determinants, this study does not claim that these environmental determinants exclusively shape the seasonality of COVID‐19. However, we argue that ADC and UV play a significant role in COVID‐19 dynamics at the seasonal scale. These findings could help guide the development of a sound adaptation strategy against the pandemic over the coming seasons. The seasonality of COVID‐19 appears to follow seasonality of some environmental variables Seasonality of air drying capacity and ultraviolet radiation consistently matches the seasonality of COVID‐19 across climatic zones Seasonality of air humidity and temperature matches the seasonality of COVID‐19 in temperate climates but not in tropical monsoon climates