Comparison of vaccination strategies for the control of dog rabies in Machakos District, Kenya
Comparison of vaccination strategies for the control of dog rabies in Machakos District, Kenya
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268802006957
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发表时间：
2002-08-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Dye, C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kitala, PM;McDermott, JJ;Dye, C
人口和流行病学现场数据被用于确定性模型，以描述犬狂犬病在肯尼亚Machakos区的传播，并预测其控制的潜在疫苗接种策略的影响。基本繁殖数（R-0）估计为2.44（1.52-3.36，95%置信限）。有三个关键的模型预测。第一个是阈值狗密度（K-T）为4.5只狗km（-2）（3.8-5.2只狗km（-2），95%置信限）需要保持传播。第二，估计每年24%的疫苗接种率未能降低发病率，实际上增加了传播的稳定性，可能适得其反。第三，为控制狂犬病，预测59%（34%-70%，95%置信限）的犬只应在任何时间接种疫苗。这需要每年约70%的疫苗接种率，但每半年一次的疫苗接种率仅为60%。需要社区一级的疫苗接种试验来检验这些预测。
Demographic and epidemiological field data were used in a deterministic model to describe dog rabies transmission in Machakos District, Kenya and to predict the impact of potential vaccination strategies for its control. The basic reproduction number (R-0) was estimated to be 2.44 (1.52-3.36, 95% confidence limits). There were three key model predictions. The first was that a threshold dog density (K-T) of 4.5 dogs km(-2) (3.8-5.2 dogs km(-2), 95% confidence limits) was required to maintain transmission. The second was that the estimated annual vaccination rate of 24% failed to decrease incidence and actually increased the stability of transmission and may be counter-productive. Thirdly, to control rabies, it was predicted that 59% (34%-70%, 95% confidence limits) of dogs should be vaccinated at any one time. This requires approximately 70% coverage for annual but only 60% coverage for semi-annual vaccination campaigns. Community-level vaccination trials are needed to test these predictions.