Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making
Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making
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DOI：
10.1007/s11111-010-0126-9
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Hugo, Graeme J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bardsley, Douglas K.;Hugo, Graeme J.
人们对环境变化对移民的影响知之甚少。作为对气候变化的反应的移徙可以被视为就地适应方法的失败，或者移徙也可以被视为创造性地适应环境风险的一个合理组成部分。本文将移民视为适应气候变化对自然资源状况和环境危害影响的一部分。各社区将达到阈值，在此之后，移徙将成为有效适应对策的重要组成部分。除非进行适当的准备工作，否则移徙模式的这种变化有可能破坏移徙政策。本文主要以尼泊尔和泰国的两个案例研究为例，通过批判性地分析如何确定移民模式的根本变化阈值，描述了一种帮助研究人员构建气候变化将如何影响移民的方法。未来的国内和国际移徙政策可以以分析这种非线性移徙的阈值为指导，并有效地提供资源，以确保最大限度地实现社会经济和人道主义成果。
The implications of environmental change for migration are little understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are maximised.