Growth and convergence: a multi-country empirical analysis of the solow growth model
Growth and convergence: a multi-country empirical analysis of the solow growth model
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增长与趋同：索洛增长模型的多国实证分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ronald Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kevin Lee;M. H. Psaran;Ronald Smith
该论文考虑了1960年至1989年之间102个国家 /地区的数据面板，考虑了国际人均输出及其增长。它规定了一个明确的随机Solow增长模型，并表明这与获得输出方程的标准方法具有截然不同的属性通过将误差项添加到确定性索洛模型的线性化解决方案中。它检查了传统上在文献中定义的beta收敛估计值的计量经济学特性，并表明所有这些估计值都存在实质性偏见。我们的经验估计清楚地反映了计量经济学理论所预测的这些偏见的性质和大小。稳态增长率在各个国家之间的差异很大，一旦允许这种异质性估计，beta的估计值大大高于文献中的共识。但是它们是非常不准确的估计，难以解释。本文还讨论了这些结果对Sigma融合的经济影响。
The paper considers international per capita output and its growth using a panel of data for 102 countries between 1960 and 1989. It sets out an explicitly stochastic Solow growth model and shows that this has quite different properties from the standard approach where the output equation is obtained by adding an error term to the linearized solution of a deterministic Solow model. It examines the econometric properties of estimates of beta convergence as traditionally defined in the literature and shows that all these estimates are subject to substantial biases. Our empirical estimates clearly reflect the nature and the magnitude of these biases as predicted by econometric theory. Steady state growth rates differ significantly across countries and once this heterogeneity is allowed for the estimates of beta are substantially higher than the consensus in the literature. But they are very imprecisely estimated and difficult to interpret. The paper also discusses the economic implications of these results for sigma convergence.