On the generation of high‐resolution probabilistic design events capturing the joint occurrence of rainfall and storm surge in coastal basins
On the generation of high‐resolution probabilistic design events capturing the joint occurrence of rainfall and storm surge in coastal basins
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/joc.7825
复制
发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hanbeen Kim;G. Villarini;R. Jane;T. Wahl;S. Misra;Alexander Michalek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hanbeen Kim;G. Villarini;R. Jane;T. Wahl;S. Misra;Alexander Michalek
沿海地区受到降雨引发的洪水和风暴潮灾害的共同风险。为了捕捉这种依赖性和这些危险的复合性质，双变量建模代表了一种简单且易于实施的方法，该方法依赖于观察记录。大多数现有的应用程序集中在一个单一的验潮站-雨量计/流计组合，限制了双变量建模的适用性，以开发高分辨率的时空设计事件，可用于量化动态，即在空间和时间上变化，复合洪水灾害在沿海流域。此外，还需要认识到，并非所有极端事件都来自单一群体，而是可能反映了不同生成机制的混合。因此，本文描述了一种在空间和时间上具有高分辨率的设计风暴的经验方法（即，~5 km和每小时）。我们还根据极端降雨和风暴潮事件是否由热带气旋（TC）引起对它们进行了分层。我们发现TC和非TC人群之间存在显著差异，如果我们将所有事件都视为来自单一人群，则会错过非常不同的依赖结构。虽然我们将这种方法应用于德克萨斯州休斯顿附近的一个盆地，但我们的方法足够通用，可以适用于任何暴露于风暴潮和降雨引发的洪水的复合洪水危害的沿海盆地。
Coastal areas are subject to the joint risk associated with rainfall‐driven flooding and storm surge hazards. To capture this dependency and the compound nature of these hazards, bivariate modelling represents a straightforward and easy‐to‐implement approach that relies on observational records. Most existing applications focus on a single tide gauge–rain gauge/streamgauge combination, limiting the applicability of bivariate modelling to develop high‐resolution space–time design events that can be used to quantify the dynamic, that is, varying in space and time, compound flood hazard in coastal basins. Moreover, there is a need to recognize that not all extreme events always come from a single population, but can reflect a mixture of different generating mechanisms. Therefore, this paper describes an empirical approach to develop design storms with high‐resolution in space and time (i.e., ~5 km and hourly) for different joint annual exceedance probabilities. We also stratify extreme rainfall and storm surge events depending on whether they were caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) or not. We find that there are significant differences between the TC and non‐TC populations, with very different dependence structures that are missed if we treat all the events as coming from a single population. While we apply this methodology to one basin near Houston, Texas, our approach is general enough to make it applicable for any coastal basin exposed to compounding flood hazards from storm surge and rainfall‐induced flooding.