Evaluating Standards for Protecting Aquatic Life in Washington ' s Surface Water Quality Standards Temperature Criteria Draft Discussion Paper and Literature Summary
Evaluating Standards for Protecting Aquatic Life in Washington ' s Surface Water Quality Standards Temperature Criteria Draft Discussion Paper and Literature Summary
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评估华盛顿地表水生物保护标准温度标准草案讨论文件和文献摘要
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Bois
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Gelman;F. Bois
这篇论文是令人钦佩的，因为它提供了一个通用的框架，允许用户专注于药代动力学建模，而不是估计的计算和统计细节。作者建立了一个看似合理的模型，并用合理的参数值对止痛数据进行了良好的t检验，同时考虑了临床试验中常见的并发症。我们将重点介绍这项工作的以下特点：(1)缺失数据的分析(辍学)，(2)药物动力学模型，(3)检验模型的t，(4)个体变异的建模和显示，以及(5)对其他给药策略的外推。对辍学的分析虽然对辍学的分析似乎是分析中的主要复杂问题(并且肯定是本领域普遍感兴趣的问题；例如，参见Ten Have等人，1997)，但我们认为，在这个特定的例子中，它是次要的。正如文章中指出的，在几乎所有的病例中，退学前的疼痛缓解水平都是0(没有疼痛缓解)。考虑到这项研究的设计(允许辍学生改用有效的止痛药)，将因辍学而未观察到的反应归因于疼痛缓解评分0似乎是合理的。我们的图1显示了完整数据集的聚合结果(包括观察到的响应和推定的响应)。除了推算外，我们还修改了文章的图1，将受访者分为三组，分别对应于三个不同的实验。我们相信，包括推算在内的图1给出了我们感谢国家科学基金会拨款DMS-9404305和青年研究人员奖DMS-9457824；鲁汶大学研究委员会提供奖学金F/96/9；以及Lewis Sheiner为酮咯酸分析提供数据和模型预测。
This paper is admirable in that it presents a general framework that allows the user to focus on the pharmacokinetic modeling rather than on the computational and statistical details of estimation. The authors set up a reasonable-seeming model and obtain a good t to the pain-relief data with plausible parameter values, while accounting for the kind of complications that typically arise in clinical trials. We would like to focus on the following features of this work: (1) analysis of the missing data (dropouts), (2) the pharmacokinetic model, (3) checking the t of the model, (4) modeling and display of individual variation, and (5) extrapolation to other dosing strategies. Analysis of the dropouts Although the analysis of dropouts appears to be a major complication in the analysis (and is certainly a problem of general interest in this eld; see, e.g., Ten Have et al., 1997), it is, we believe, a minor concern in this particular example. As noted in the article, the pain relief level just preceding dropout was 0 (no pain relief) in nearly all the cases. Considering the design of the study (with dropouts allowed to switch to an eeective analgesic), it seems reasonable to impute pain relief scores of 0 for the responses that were unobserved because of dropout. Our Figure 1 shows the aggregate results for the completed dataset (including both observed and imputed responses). In addition to the imputation, we have altered Figure 1 of the article by separating the \dose = 0" respondents into three groups corresponding to the three diierent experiments. We believe that our Figure 1, with imputations included, gives We thank the National Science Foundation for grant DMS-9404305 and Young Investigator award DMS-9457824; the Research Council of Katholieke Universiteit Leuven for fellowship F/96/9; and Lewis Sheiner for providing the data and model predictions for the ketorolac analysis.