PROBABILITY OF STROKE - A RISK PROFILE FROM THE FRAMINGHAM-STUDY
PROBABILITY OF STROKE - A RISK PROFILE FROM THE FRAMINGHAM-STUDY
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DOI：
10.1161/01.str.22.3.312
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发表时间：
1991-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
KANNEL, WB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
WOLF, PA;DAGOSTINO, RB;KANNEL, WB
使用Framingham研究队列开发了用于预测中风的健康风险评估函数。资料中包含的中风危险因素包括年龄、收缩压、抗高血压治疗的使用、糖尿病、吸烟、既往心血管疾病(冠心病、心力衰竭或间歇性跛行)、心房颤动和心电图显示的左心室肥厚。根据两年一次的第9次和第14次检查中10年间发生的472起中风事件，根据基于分数系统的COX比例风险模型计算了中风的概率。根据档案中的危险因素，可以很容易地在医生办公室的常规体检中确定，中风的风险可以被估计。一个人的风险可能与相同年龄和性别的人患中风的平均风险有关。一个人患中风的风险比平均水平高几倍的信息可能为风险因素调整提供动力。它还可能有助于识别由于多种危险因素的临界水平而导致中风风险显著增加的人，例如那些患有轻度或临界高血压的人，并促进多因素危险因素的修改。
A health risk appraisal function has been developed for the prediction of stroke using the Framingham Study cohort. The stroke risk factors included in the profile are age, systolic blood pressure, the use of antihypertensive therapy, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking, prior cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease, cardiac failure, or intermittent claudication), atrial fibrillation, and left ventricular hypertrophy by electrocardiogram. Based on 472 stroke events occurring during 10 years' follow-up from biennial examinations 9 and 14, stroke probabilities were computed using the Cox proportional hazards model for each sex based on a point system. On the basis of the risk factors in the profile, which can be readily determined on routine physical examination in a physician's office, stroke risk can be estimated. An individual's risk can be related to the average risk of stroke for persons of the same age and sex. The information that one's risk of stroke is several times higher than average may provide the impetus for risk factor modification. It may also help to identify persons at substantially increased stroke risk resulting from borderline levels of multiple risk factors such as those with mild or borderline hypertension and facilitate multifactorial risk factor modification.