An interdisciplinary agent-based multimodal wildfire evacuation model: Critical decisions and life safety
An interdisciplinary agent-based multimodal wildfire evacuation model: Critical decisions and life safety
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基于跨学科代理的多模式野火疏散模型：关键决策和生命安全
DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2021.103147
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Axhausen, Kay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Siam, M.R.K.;Wang, Haizhong;Lindell, Michael K.;Chen, Chen;Vlahogianni, Eleni I.;Axhausen, Kay
本文将基于主体的跨学科野火疏散模型（ABM）应用于2018年希腊Mati的毁灭性野火，这是21世纪第二大致命的野火。该模型将自然灾害系统（野火传播）与社会技术响应系统相结合，该系统由社会（人口响应）和工程（交通网络和避难所位置）组成。研究的目的是考察风险区域人群的决策(1)是否离开和等待多长时间（即离开时间）对野火伤亡的影响；(2)使用何种交通方式（例如步行还是开车）；(3)旅行有多快。对几种疏散场景的分析表明，没有儿童、多模式旅行、分阶段疏散和增加避难所容量会导致更成功的野火疏散。这些分析可以帮助应急管理人员提高社区野火疏散计划的有效性。
This article applies an interdisciplinary agent-based model (ABM) of wildfire evacuation to the devastating 2018 wildfire in Mati, Greece, where the second-deadliest wildfire of the 21st century took place. This model integrates the natural hazard system (wildfire propagation) with the sociotechnical response system comprising social (population response) and engineered (transportation network and shelter location) components. The research objective is to investigate the effects on wildfire casualties of the risk area population’s decisions about (1) whether to leave and how long to wait (i.e., departure time); (2) what transportation mode to use (e.g., walking or driving); and (3) how fast to travel. Analysis of several evacuation scenarios shows that the absence of children, multi-modal travel, staged evacuation, and increased shelter capacity lead to a more successful wildfire evacuation. These analyses can help emergency managers improve the effectiveness of their communities’ wildfire evacuation plans.