Water and economic development: The role of variability and a framework for resilience
Water and economic development: The role of variability and a framework for resilience
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1477-8947.2006.00118.x
复制
发表时间：
2006-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Lall, Upmanu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, Casey;Lall, Upmanu
本文提出了降雨的季节和年际变化是国家经济发展中一个重要的、可测量的因素的假设。对全球数据集的分析显示，较大的降雨量变率与较低的人均国内生产总值之间存在统计学上显著的关系。在建立了这种相关性之后，我们构建了一个水资源发展指数，该指数突出了最需要储存基础设施的地区，以减轻降雨变化对粮食和基本生计用水供应的影响。根据这一指标，最需要基础设施的国家是世界上最贫穷的国家，其中大多数位于非洲。鉴于当前的人口增长、经济发展和气候变化预测，确保这些国家水资源供应的重要性与日俱增。
The article advances the hypothesis that the seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall is a significant and measurable factor in the economic development of nations. An analysis of global datasets reveals a statistically significant relationship between greater rainfall variability and lower per capita GDP. Having established this correlation, we construct a water resources development index that highlights areas that have the greatest need for storage infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of rainfall variability on water availability for food and basic livelihood. The countries with the most critical infrastructure needs according to this metric are among the poorest in the world, and the majority of them are located in Africa. The importance of securing water availability in these nations increases every day in light of current population growth, economic development, and climate change projections.