Sensitivity of Flood Hazard and Damage to Modelling Approaches
Sensitivity of Flood Hazard and Damage to Modelling Approaches
复制标题
洪水灾害和损害对建模方法的敏感性
DOI：
10.3390/jmse8090724
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
A. Plater
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Lyddon;Jennifer Brown;N. Leonardi;A. Plater
极端风暴的水位和波高预测的不确定性结合在一起可能导致不可接受的误差水平，从而使洪水危害评估框架变得不那么有用。使用二维淹没模型LISFLOOD-FP来量化洪水对海岸灾害条件不确定性的敏感性，以及用于强制模型海岸边界的方法。结果表明，由于区域模式的建立，洪水淹没对海岸灾害条件的微小变化比将这些条件作为边界强迫的方法更敏感。一旦超过洪水的阈值，水位和浪高的总和增加几厘米，就会增加淹没和随之而来的破坏成本。对洪水评估的不确定性进行更好的量化，有助于长期沿海洪水灾害缓解和适应战略，从而增强人们对海岸线如何应对未来海平面变化的信心。
Combination of uncertainties in water level and wave height predictions for extreme storms can result in unacceptable levels of error, rendering flood hazard assessment frameworks less useful. A 2D inundation model, LISFLOOD-FP, was used to quantify sensitivity of flooding to uncertainty in coastal hazard conditions and method used to force the coastal boundary of the model. It is shown that flood inundation is more sensitive to small changes in coastal hazard conditions due to the setup of the regional model, than the approach used to apply these conditions as boundary forcing. Once the threshold for flooding is exceeded, a few centimetres increase in combined water level and wave height increases both the inundation and consequent damage costs. Improved quantification of uncertainty in inundation assessments can aid long-term coastal flood hazard mitigation and adaptation strategies, to increase confidence in knowledge of how coastlines will respond to future changes in sea-level.
波浪-潮汐相互作用调节近岸波高
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Lewis M
通讯作者：
Lewis M
影响因子：
--
作者：
Brown J
通讯作者：
Brown J
洪水%20inundation%20不确定性：%20The%20case%20of%20a%200.5%%20annual%20probability%20flood%20event
影响因子：
6
作者：
Prime T
通讯作者：
Prime T