Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
复制标题
2021 年 7 月德国洪水预警系统的表现——受影响居民的见解
DOI：
10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
A. Otto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Thieken;P. Bubeck;A. Heidenreich;J. von Keyserlingk;Lisa Dillenardt;A. Otto
摘要。2021年7月，强降雨引发了毁灭性的洪水
Abstract. In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods
in western Europe and 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North
Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling into question their flood
forecasting, warning and response system (FFWRS). Data from an online survey
(n=1315) reveal that 35 % of the respondents from NW and 29 % from
RP did not receive any warning. Of those who were warned, 85 % did not
expect very severe flooding and 46 % reported a lack of situational
knowledge on protective behaviour. Regression analysis reveals that this
knowledge is influenced not only by gender and flood experience but also by the
content and the source of the warning message. The results are complemented
by analyses of media reports and official warnings that show shortcomings in
providing adequate recommendations to people at risk. Still, the share of
people who did not report any emergency response is low and comparable to
other flood events. However, the perceived effectiveness of the protective behaviour was low and mainly compromised by high water levels and the perceived level of surprise about the flood magnitude. Good situational knowledge and a higher number of previously experienced floods were linked to performing more effective loss-reducing action. Dissemination of warnings,
clearer communication of the expected flood magnitude and recommendations on
adequate responses to a severe flood, particularly with regard to flash and
pluvial floods, are seen as major entry points for improving the FFWRS in
Germany.